The EU is considering granting Moldova a big step forward in its bid to join the 27-member bloc ahead of parliamentary elections there in late September ― putting it ahead of Ukraine for the first time.

Under the scenario being studied by EU officials, European countries would vote to open a first “negotiating cluster” for Moldova — a key legal step on the path to membership — early next month after a meeting of EU ministers, according to three diplomats and an EU official.

Such a move would grant a powerful electoral boost to President Maia Sandu, whose party is campaigning on a pro-EU platform and faces determined efforts from Russia to sway the vote in Moscow’s favor.

“A way needs to be found to open the first cluster,” said Siegfried Muresan, a conservative EU lawmaker who chairs the EU-Moldova Association Committee in the European Parliament. “It would send a signal to Russia. It would take away the argument for the narrative of the Russians, which is to say that there is no progress on the path to EU membership.”

But allowing Moldova to move forward while leaving Ukraine on hold risks angering Kyiv, whose EU membership bid has moved in lockstep with Moldova’s since both countries received an initial green light from the European Council in 2023.

“There is a danger here of sending the wrong signal to Ukrainians,” said a Ukrainian diplomat. “At a time when future peace is being discussed in Alaska, we need to keep the perspective of EU membership as strong as possible.”

Both Moldova and Ukraine have undertaken far-reaching reforms to join the EU, completing all the necessary steps to open a first negotiating cluster, according to a spokesperson for the European Commission.

“There is no objective reason to block Cluster 1,” the spokesperson added in an emailed comment.

Powerful message

The problem is that Ukraine’s bid is being blocked by Hungary, whose prime minister, Viktor Orbán, has made opposing Kyiv’s entry into the bloc a key plank of his own bid for reelection next year.

So while Moldova could win approval from all 27 member countries for opening a negotiating cluster at an informal General Affairs Council gathering on Sept. 1, Ukraine is unlikely to get unanimous backing.

This has put pro-enlargement countries, including EU presidency holder Denmark, in a bind.

If they keep Moldova’s candidacy strictly tied to Ukraine’s, they are unable to move forward with either. Allowing Moldova’s to move forward before Sept. 28 would send a powerful message to pro-EU voters in Moldova — but could infuriate Ukrainians.

According to an EU diplomat closely following the process, several options are under consideration to show Ukraine that its candidacy is moving forward even if no negotiating cluster is opened — including granting Kyiv access to the Horizon Europe program or the Erasmus student exchange program.

“There are a lot of things we can do to bring Ukraine closer to Europe in other ways than the formal negotiation procedure,” the EU diplomat said. “The key thing is to keep pushing forward and make clear that Hungary’s opposition is not seen as legitimate, and that the real carrot is the end of the process.”

Historic moment

Diplomats and officials also stressed that circumstances could rapidly change, notably in light of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin’s meeting in Alaska on Friday.

If the leaders strike a deal and determine that EU membership for Ukraine is a crucial part of it, Trump could prevail on Orbán to lift his opposition to Kyiv’s accession.

Advocates of keeping the two bids coupled argue that Europe shouldn’t risk demoralizing Ukrainians who are committed to joining the EU, and that a better strategy would be to push Trump to force Orbán to lift his blockade.

“This a historic moment and you have to look at this situation in its totality. EU membership is a crucial part of any peace deal,” added the diplomat.