President Donald Trump this week insisted Americans are experiencing the “best economy we’ve ever had.” Privately, White House officials acknowledge people just aren’t feeling it.

The economy grew faster in the second quarter than initially anticipated, productivity was revised upwards, inflation hasn’t surged despite new tariffs and gas prices have fallen to levels not seen in decades. Republicans also avoided what would have amounted to a major tax increase with Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill earlier this year.

But polls show Americans remain anxious about high prices, and there are signs the economy’s resilience is starting to fray, making it harder for the administration to close the delta between how the economy looks on paper and how people feel. The Congressional Budget Office also said Friday that the megalaw will have little effect on economic growth before the 2028 election, its gains blunted by the president’s tariffs and immigration crackdown.

“That’s a thing that I know the White House political team is nervous about because there’s a reality and there’s a perception. And the reality is the economy is doing fine and the perception is people are still worried about things like grocery prices, which are still high, and still growing,” said Stephen Moore, an outside economic adviser to Trump who the president featured in an impromptu Oval Office press conference last month.

Trump, in an interview on “Fox & Friends” Friday, pointed to the trillions of dollars of investments in the U.S. that companies have promised since he took office and the record high stocks hit on Thursday, insisting that Americans are experiencing the “best economy we’ve ever had.”

Trumpeting positive economic statistics in the face of sagging sentiment is a political trap that has ensnared many administrations, including, most recently, the Biden White House. During former President Joe Biden’s term, the president and his aides insisted that economic statistics vindicated their policies even as that data failed to move frustrated voters.

Republicans could face a similar problem as they head into what is expected to be a difficult fight for control of the House.

“There’s a new recognition certainly among White House folks, some GOP folks on the Hill, and elsewhere that we have a problem, and that lecturing the American people and telling them, ‘No, things are actually fine,’ is just not going to work,” said Steve Cortes, a former Trump campaign adviser. “Trust us, trust the plan. Trump’s done it before, he’s doing it again — all that would be good, but don’t dismiss their concerns.”

Privately, White House aides are clear-eyed about the reality of Americans’ economic anxieties. But they believe their policies will turn things around by next fall.

“Inflationary cycles don’t erase themselves in six months or a year,” said a senior White House official, granted anonymity to share the administration’s thinking. “You’ve got to turn the ship around, and I think we are making progress on that.”

A recent CBS News poll found that just 36 percent of Americans say the economy is “good,” while the New York Federal Reserve said Monday that people believe there is a 45 percent chance they can find a new job if unemployed — the weakest reading since the survey began in 2013. Together, the numbers sketch a picture of an American electorate more jittery than jubilant.

The August jobs report also came in weaker than expected, inflation remains above the Fed’s target and jobless claims just hit their highest level since late 2021.

“I think the economy is weakening,” JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC on Tuesday. “Whether it’s on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”

White House officials continue to blame Biden for handing over a weak economy, pointing to Tuesday’s jobs revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealing that U.S. hiring from April 2024 to March 2025 was overestimated by 911,000 jobs — the largest downward revision on record — as the latest example. Allies hope those Tuesday numbers give the White House additional cover as it works to address voters’ perceptions.

The Federal Reserve is poised to lower interest rates at its meeting next week — a move made more likely after wholesale prices ticked down in August, even as consumer prices have begun creeping up under tariff pressure. Inflation was decreasing early this year but has been steadily increasing since May, with the latest numbers putting inflation roughly where it was in January. The interest rate reduction, which Trump has called for for months, makes it cheaper for consumers and businesses to borrow and spend, which, in theory, stimulates the economy.

White House aides expect multiple rate cuts before next year’s election and believe those along with continued increases in real wages and the effects from the megalaw’s tax cuts will give people a sense that their economic situations are improving.

“If anything, we feel bullish, relatively, because we got the tax cuts done so early, we got them retroactive, we’re going to enter a rate cut cycle,” the senior White House official said. “Now we’re in what I call the grind.”

Still, the White House has struggled to message its signature domestic policy legislation, with a Pew survey last month finding that 46 percent of Americans disapprove of the law, while 32 percent approve. In an attempt to reverse those figures, as well as economic concerns, the White House has rebranded its so-called One Big Beautiful Bill as the “Working Families Tax Cut.”

Aides acknowledge it’s less about reality than voters’ perceptions. They’re paying less attention to economic indicators and more to voter sentiment, whether that’s shaped by the stock market, consumer prices or inflation headlines.

“Right now, people know the price of gas is down, they know some things are down and more stable, but it’s going to take some time before they really feel the benefit, because you’re going to have to grow your way out of this,” said Trump pollster John McLaughlin. “It’s going to take some time, but as those policies percolate, it’ll be a sense of relief compared to what the last four years were like.”

Aides say inflation-adjusted wages aren’t back to where they were before the cost of living spike at the beginning of Biden’s presidency and they don’t expect them to catch up by Election Day. But they do believe Americans’ economic situations will improve enough by November 2026 that voters feel the economy is headed in the right direction.

“Most voters are pretty sophisticated. They understand that there’s not a magic wand here,” the senior official said. “If there’s a sustained directionality of people feeling like their economic situation is improving between now and a year from now, then we’ll be in pretty good shape.”

Worker pay, adjusted for inflation, is up from where it stood before the pandemic and has been increasing since early 2023, according to Labor Department data.

White House officials also believe there are reasons to think they are starting from a better position than other recent administrations heading into midterm elections, though they understand the situation could change.

The gap between the percentage of people who think the nation is headed in the right direction instead of the wrong direction is about 15 percentage points today, compared to about 31 points at the same point in Biden’s 2022 cycle and nearly 28 percent at this point in Trump’s first term, according to Real Clear Politics. Republicans’ voter registration advantage is also expanding nationwide, while Democrats’ favorability remains 27 points under water compared to 13 percent for Republicans.

Privately, they are also eyeing a silver lining should the Supreme Court strike down the president’s tariffs: Market analysts may hail such a move as a win for the economy as billions of dollars collected in recent months are infused back into businesses. And, if the court upholds them, aides believe price increases are mostly baked in and that markets will respond positively to any deficit reductions the government makes as a result of the tariffs.

And, if all else fails, Trump can pivot to other issues like crime and immigration. The National Guard and other federal law enforcement officials have spent the last month cracking down on crime in Washington, and Trump announced on Friday that his next target will be Memphis, Tennessee. The shift is deliberate: broadening the voters’ aperture so the economy isn’t the only focus.

“If all you’re thinking about is the economy, then you live by the sword, die by the sword,” said Sean Spicer, former White House press secretary. “They’re talking about crime. They’re talking about tariffs. There’s so much going on that they’re making sure that it’s not just one issue.”

Victoria Guida contributed to this report.