If Donald Trump is going to slap sanctions on Russia over its war on Ukraine, there are a few things he’d like his European allies to do first.

In a social media post this weekend, the U.S. president said he’d be ready to “go” when all NATO nations stop buying oil from Russia. He also said countries belonging to the Western military alliance should place tariffs on China of between 50 percent and 100 percent until the end of the war.

The demand follows a visit to Brussels by U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, in which Trump’s envoy urged the EU to wean itself off Russian energy, and a lopsided trade deal in July in which the bloc pledged to buy $750 billion of U.S. oil and gas by the end of his term.

Meeting some of these demands will be easier than others. POLITICO lays out what Trump wants — and how likely he is to get it.

The EU must kick Russian oil

Difficulty: Medium

For most EU countries, this isn’t too hard an ask. 

Imports of Russian oil to the EU have plummeted after the bloc banned imports by sea following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Before the war in 2021, the bloc imported 45 percent of its natural gas and 27 percent of its crude oil from Russia. Last year, that share dropped to 19 percent for gas and 3 percent for oil. In 2024, the EU forked out €21.9 billion for Russian fossil fuels, accounting for roughly 10 percent of Russia’s total global export revenues.

Hungary and Slovakia’s insistence that they need Russian oil makes further progress difficult. The two countries were granted a temporary exemption allowing them to continue to bring in fuel via the Druzhba pipeline running through Ukraine. 

Though the carve-out was intended to provide Budapest and Bratislava time to find alternative suppliers, the two countries instead increased their purchases from Russia — cashing in on discounted oil. That has left both countries dependent on Russian imports.

“Hungary increased its Russian crude reliance from 61 percent pre-invasion to 86 percent in 2024, and Slovakia remained almost 100 percent dependent on supply from Moscow,” according to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

“Disconnecting from Russian energy sources would have very serious consequences for both the Slovak and European economies,” said a spokesperson from Slovakia’s foreign ministry. “Therefore, we actively oppose this proposal.”

For the European Commission, Trump’s demands offer additional leverage to push Hungary and Slovakia to cut their reliance on Moscow, said three European officials who were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive negotiations. 

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen is kicking off negotiations in the coming weeks with the two countries as part of his REPowerEU plan to end Russian energy purchases. Brussels proposed a bill in July that would require EU countries to end Russian gas imports by 2027. 

Wright has suggested accelerating the phaseout, but there’s little appetite to do that, said two  EU diplomats involved in the talks.

“[EU] member states need time to adjust and find an alternative source,” one of the diplomats said.

NATO also needs to stop buying Russian oil

Difficulty: Hard

In expanding his demand from the EU to all NATO allies, Trump has thrown a Turkey-shaped wrench into the mix.

Turkey, a critical NATO ally with a unique strategic location controlling access to the Black Sea, has refused to sign up to Western restrictions on trade with Russia. Instead, the country has cashed in by reexporting billions of euros of Russian oil to Europe and elsewhere.

“It’s not very realistic and … highly improbable that Turkey would comply with such a request at this point in time,” said Sinan Ülgen, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank and a former Turkish diplomat. 

It would likely take considerable pressure from Trump to get Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to change course. The country is in the middle of a cost-of-living crisis, with high energy prices driving discontent and threatening his continued hold on power.

Last year, Turkey got 41 percent of its gas imports from Russia, according to Aura Sabadus, a senior energy analyst at the ICIS consultancy. The country imported 57 percent of its oil from Moscow, said Homayoun Falakshahi, lead crude analyst at the Kpler commodities firm.

NATO itself is unlikely to play any role in ending imports, said a senior NATO diplomat. Policies on “buying Russian oil and gas and Europe introducing tariffs belong to the EU,” the diplomat said.

Europe should buy tons of US gas

Difficulty: Nearly impossible 

The Trump administration has portrayed increased sales of American liquefied natural gas as a win-win opportunity: higher profits for U.S. fossil fuel firms and less revenue for the Russian war machine.

“We want to displace all Russian gas,” Wright said during his recent visit to Brussels. “The more we can strangle Russia’s ability to fund this murderous war, the better for all of us.” 

In July, the U.S. president used the threat of tariffs to extract a commitment from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the EU would buy at least $750 billion in U.S. oil and gas by the end of his term. 

Analysts have pointed out that the promise will be nearly impossible to keep.

The EU spent €375 billion on energy imports last year, and only €76 billion of that came from the U.S., according to Laura Page, a senior analyst at Kpler. To meet the commitment, the bloc would essentially have to triple its American imports over the next three years — and shun other providers such as Norway, which provides cheaper gas via a pipeline. 

At the same time, the U.S. only sent $166 billion in oil and gas abroad in 2024, Page noted, meaning it would have to divert all its exports to the EU — and then some. 

That’s “just never going to happen,” she said.

In the first quarter of this year, U.S. LNG enjoyed a 50.7 percent market share in the EU. Russia accounted for 17 percent, much of it procured under long-term contracts signed before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. 

Jørgensen’s REPowerEU plan includes terms that would oblige energy firms to end those contracts, freeing them up to buy American instead, but companies are still working out whether such a move would leave them liable to litigation.

On top of that, Jørgensen likes to say that he does not “sit in my office and trade gas.” The Commission has not proposed a way to incentivize private companies to buy American.

The EU must slap tariffs on China

Difficulty: Forget about it

This one’s just not going to happen. 

Politically and economically, slapping tariffs on Beijing would be a death blow for the EU.

Over the past decades, the EU economy has become increasingly intertwined with China’s, with consumers growing accustomed to cheap imports. And while the bloc has pledged to reduce its dependence on China, crucial sectors of the economy — from German carmakers to French wine sellers and Italian fashion houses — rely on the country for large parts of their production and sales.

China is the EU’s third-largest trading partner for goods and services — after the U.S. and the U.K. — and its second-largest for goods alone, after the U.S. The country accounts for some 21 percent of EU imports. Beijing has also shown it won’t shy from responding forcefully to any EU provocation. 

“High tariffs on China would be hugely damaging, we know that from the U.S. who backtracked on doing this,” said David Henig, an analyst with the European Centre for International Political Economy think tank. 

Last week, Trump also called for tariffs to be slapped on India — a historically protectionist partner with whom Brussels is currently finalizing negotiations on a trade accord. 

“Trump knows or has been told that we are trying to close a trade deal with India and that we do not necessarily want to enter into a trade war with China,” said a second EU diplomat.