Reform UK is now neck and neck with Plaid Cymru in Wales, with recent polling showing Nigel Farage’s party is just one per cent off the lead.

New polling from YouGov says Reform UK would claim 29 per cent of the vote in Wales, an impressive four-point boost from a previous poll in April.

Labour’s vote share fell by four per cent, leaving them in a distant third with just 14 per cent.

Reform recently claimed a by-election seat off Labour last week, as Edward Topham became the first Reform councillor on Cardiff Council, winning with a 461-vote majority.

Pollster James Johnson says it is “seismic” for Reform to be leading the polls in Wales.

He told GB News: “There is a group of voters in Wales who were immune to what happened in the Red Wall in 2019 when Boris [Johnson] stormed to victory.

“They are people who are white, working class, are deeply concerned about levels of migration, and voted Leave – but still voted Labour then and since. Perhaps it was admiration of Mark Drakeford, perhaps just a stronger national loyalty to the Labour Party.

“That link now seems to have become unbuckled. Those voters are all to play for and dismayed by the Conservative party and always suspicious of their intentions anyway. Reform is filling that void, and it is completely conceivable to see Reform place first in Wales this year and be a dominant force there in the years going forward.”

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What will come as a real blow for Labour is that only 27 per cent of those who voted for them in 2024 would back the party at the next Senedd election, dropping from 40 per cent in April.

Interim Branch Chair for Reform Carmarthenshire, Gareth Beer, told GB News: “Labour is clearly demoralised, and their voters are clearly deserting them in droves, UK-wide and especially in Wales.”

Mr Beer said there is an “enthusiasm on the ground” with the party when campaigning and knocking on doors.

At the recent by-election, the writing was on the wall for a Reform win, with a Labour source saying: “Having knocked on quite a few doors, it was obvious that we were going to lose.

“Voters who were previously marked as Labour supporters said they wouldn’t be voting, while others must have voted for Reform.”

Reform UK spokeswoman for Bridgend, Caroline Jones, said the party “is growing stronger by the day in Wales and we aim to become the leading party in the Senedd”.

Speaking to GB News, she said: “If you look at the result of the recent Council by-election in Cardiff, we can see how the people of Wales feel betrayed by all of the parties in the Senedd.

“Labour has always led in the Senedd, propped up by their ‘little helpers’, Plaid Cymru. Public consultations have been ignored, even when the people have strongly vetoed a Government proposal.”

The Reform members have eyes on more seats in the capital as they look to turn Wales turquoise.

Commenting on the by-election, Mr Beer said: “To win in the capital of Wales, Cardiff, and to win big, 40 per cent of the vote, where many who reside in the more rural areas think has been the main beneficiary of all the funding that flows into Cardiff, really back ups up Labour’s decline and Reform’s climb up in the polls.”

He pointed out the party’s trajectory, with the gap between Reform and Plaid Cymru continuing to close.

When asked if Reform could overtake the Welsh party, Mr Beer said: “Time will tell… we are working hard, towards surpassing Plaid in the coming weeks and months and becoming the dominant party in the Senedd come May 2026.”