HELSINKI — Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, who is on famously good terms with Donald Trump after they bonded on the golf course, reckons it’s only a matter of time before America hits Russia’s leader where it hurts. 

“Having seen that carrots rarely work with the Russians, he has moved to the stick stage,” Stubb told POLITICO and reporters from a handful of other media in Helsinki. “Now it’s just a question of how big the stick is going to be.” 

Stubb, a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its effort to repel Russia’s invading forces, said he had been greatly encouraged by the public criticism of Putin coming from Trump and others in the U.S. administration over the past two weeks. 

His view contrasts with skepticism from officials in Brussels and politicians in European capitals, some of whom dismissed Trump’s statements that Ukraine could “win” back all its territory from Russia as hollow words. 

But Stubb has more credibility than most when it comes to interpreting Trump, having built a rapport with the American president while playing golf, a sport they both love. Asked what sort of stick Trump would choose to hit Putin with, Stubb quipped that it might be a “driver.”

“President Trump is working if not around the clock, then every day with trying to end the war,” Stubb said. “He has 14 clubs in his bag.”

The options range from tighter sanctions, including secondary sanctions, to higher tariffs and even making greater use of the U.S. military’s arsenal of weapons that can penetrate deep into Russian territory. 

“You don’t have to read ‘The Art of [the] Deal’ to understand the way in which President Trump negotiates,” Stubb said. “It’s unconventional but it is quite results-oriented … If Putin after [meeting Trump for an Aug. 15 summit in] Alaska basically continues to kill civilians in Ukraine, President Trump is justifiably going to react.” 

Describing himself as “a realistic optimist,” Stubb urged Ukraine’s supporters to stay patient. “I have had the possibility to work with President Trump quite closely over the past few months,” he said. “Perhaps optimism is sometimes an intuition, but I think the facts on the ground right now speak that we are going in a better direction.” 

Backing Ukraine 

When it comes to Europe’s role in backing Kyiv, Stubb strongly endorsed moves to hasten Ukraine’s accession to the EU by finding a way to work around the veto of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. 

“Any decision-making mechanism, which gives more flexibility and less possibility to block I personally welcome. And never more so than with Ukraine. I always say never underestimate the capacity of the lawyers of both the European Commission and the Council to find creative solutions in these kinds of situations. Ukraine’s membership of the European Union is of strategic importance. The sooner it happens, the better.” 

He supported the Commission’s plan to exploit around €170 billion in frozen Russian assets held in Europe to fund loans to Ukraine. The debt would only be repayable if Russia pays war damages to Kyiv, which Stubb said appeared unlikely.

“I think the idea is ingenious and I’m quite confident that it will work and this will help Ukraine to fund itself.” 

On the crisis in the Middle East, he said the war in Gaza differed from the war in Ukraine but noted that Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel resembles Russia in having violated international law.

“Has Israel gone too far like Russia has? The answer is yes.”