BRUSSELS ― Ursula von der Leyen can’t get too comfortable. Around every corner there will be another referendum on her leadership.

When she appears before the European Parliament on Monday evening ― to defend her reputation three days ahead of a second set of no-confidence votes in three months ― it’s in the knowledge that even if her centrist opponents are keeping her in post for now, there’s always a next time.

From trade deals and the bloc’s looming seven-year budget to questions about the European Commission’s commitment to transparency or even how she navigates the EU’s place in an increasingly competitive world, opportunities that allow members of the Parliament to pass judgement on von der Leyen’s performance will keep on coming. This week ― according to POLITICO research ― she’s almost certainly safe. But beyond that?

“We will judge her against her implementation efforts but that won’t be in October,” said René Repasi, head of the German set of MEPs in the Socialists and Democrats, the second-largest group in the Parliament after von der Leyen’s. She “has made clear that she has understood where Europe’s problems lie. Now she must implement her proposals.”

With European Council President António Costa playing second fiddle to von der Leyen on the world stage as she burnishes her relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump, and the leaders of France and Germany struggling to be as powerful as their predecessors, the Commission chief’s role is coming under the microscope more than it ever used to. The days of consensual EU politics seem over.

The S&D, the liberal Renew group, the Greens and even some of von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party are dismayed at her record. None are ready to move against her in any meaningful way right now, but few rule out the possibility of challenges down the line.

“We don’t exclude” playing the censure card “if we see the need,” a spokesperson for Iratxe García, chair of the S&D group, told Brussels Playbook, on condition of anonymity in line with policy.

Becoming routine

The two motions of no confidence this week and the one von der Leyen fought in July were proposed separately by groups on the relative fringes. The far-right Patriots and The Left are following a path trodden by the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists.

There’s little evidence they will stop trying. With only 72 signatures out of 720 MEPs required, no-confidence motions might start becoming routine. The tool isn’t new in the EU treaty, it’s just that lawmakers seem to have woken up to using it.

While The Left said there was no plan to keep coming with ever more motions to challenge her position, right-wing lawmakers remain noncommittal, saying they’re waiting to assess how this week’s vote unfolds.

In any case, it’s not just the formal confidence votes. Other prominent issues in von der Leyen’s second term could well end up as referendums on her leadership. Even if the Parliament votes don’t remove her from office, they could hamstring her.

These include trade deals with the U.S. and Latin America and the Commission’s first “simplification” package aimed at removing red tape, which has been plagued by disagreements between von der Leyen’s EPP and the S&D.

And last week, those two largest political groups in the Parliament signaled they are ready to topple the EU’s proposed long-term budget as they oppose a change that von der Leyen pushed for.

“There are many other votes coming that will test her leadership,” said an EPP MEP granted anonymity to speak candidly about their party’s most senior figure. The MEP pointed at “the U.S. trade deal, which is directly associated with her after Scotland [where she signed it at Trump’s Turnberry golf course], the budget, which everyone in Parliament seems to dislike, and the Mercosur [Latin America trade] deal.”

Change the rules?

The Parliament does have the right to change its rules to demand a higher number of signatures to force a no-confidence vote.

“It would be great if they raised the threshold and bring the dignity back for the motion,” an official from the Commission said on condition of anonymity to allow discussion of confidential matters, suggesting that the more the Parliament uses the tool, the less impact it would have.

The official said there had been no talks with the Parliament, however, and it remained “a Parliament prerogative.”

“There is a clear frustration in Parliament toward this Commission, to von der Leyen namely, you never know when the political tides will change,” the official said.