STRASBOURG ― Ursula von der Leyen appealed for unity when she appeared before MEPs on Monday ― for the sake of the whole of Europe.

Three months on from the last time she faced a no-confidence vote, the European Commission president was in a slightly more conciliatory mode, and so were her more moderate opponents.

In July, von der Leyen used the occasion to defend herself against accusations of wrongdoing on “Pfizergate” ― the unpublished text message exchange with a drugmaker CEO during the Covid pandemic. But this time there was less policy debate and fewer surprises.

MEPs will vote on the two no-confidence motions, brought by the far right and far left, on Thursday (even though she’ll almost certainly survive that because her centrist opponents say they’ll back her).

Here are some things we noticed.

1. A softer tone but von der Leyen still plays up threats from the Kremlin

When she faced the first no-confidence vote in July, the Commission president made headlines by saying her critics were “supported by our enemies and by their puppet masters in Russia or elsewhere.”

She wasn’t quite so strident this time but it’s clear she still sees this as a valid line of attack. She urged lawmakers not to fall into what she called a “trap” laid by Vladimir Putin. She said the Russian president’s attempts to divide Europe were “the oldest trick in the book,” which aimed to “weaken our resolve and resilience.”

“This is a trap and we simply cannot fall for it,” she said.

2. She did seem to try to be more conciliatory

Von der Leyen said she understood that many of the criticisms heading her way “come from a place of genuine and legitimate concern,” citing issues such as Gaza, Ukraine, trade, and relations with the U.S.

That struck a far more mollifying note than the one she expressed in July.

3. Von der Leyen thinks it helps to portray herself as the stability amid the chaos

When the world is going to hell in a handbasket, at least it’s got the president of the European Commission to keep things steady.

That’s one of the tactics von der Leyen is using to urge MEPs to stick by her.

“The world is in the most precarious and perilous state it has been for decades, and Europe is on high alert, from reckless space incursions to attempts at economic cohesion,” she said. “We need to focus on what really matters, which is to deliver for Europeans.”

4. The centrists are rallying round her…

The past few months have seen an escalation in the conflict between von der Leyen’s center-right and the center-left Socialists and Democrats, who aren’t supporting the motion to remove the Commission president.

There have been some very public falling outs between the parliamentary chiefs of each side, Manfred Weber of von der Leyen’s European People’s Party and S&D boss Iratxe García.

But now they seem to be on the same page for what they see as the greater good ― turning their ire on the extremes and keeping von der Leyen in power.

Weber was scathing in his criticisms, notably calling out the far-right Patriots for Europe group for their opposition to the U.S. trade deal.

“You are the ones with strong ties to MAGA, so what are you doing for us now?”

And García said: “In the face of the empty cries of the far right and a left that has given up governing, our response is clear — dialogue, negotiation and compromise are what bear fruit and improve the lives of citizens.”

5. …but it’s not a blank check

“Support is not unconditional; it depends on you,” García told von der Leyen, suggesting the threat of further opposition will never be far away. “You will only have our support if you keep the agreed promises.”

6. Shorter is better?

Another of von der Leyen’s tactics seems to be to talk less. In July, she spoke for around 15 minutes, this time she limited herself to just seven.

7. Paris hangs over everything…

It’s been another day of turmoil in the EU’s second-largest country. French politics has been a bit of a mess for a while and there’s a school of thought that this has leaked onto the European stage. After all, this week’s two motions of no confidence were both proposed by French MEPs, from the far right and far left respectively.

EPP chief Weber described the motions as a “simple propaganda tool.”

“I hope you have collected enough material for your French electoral campaign,” he told them.

8. …and the French far right aren’t really pretending otherwise

 “This is a vote against the Europe of Macron,”  said far-right French MEP Jordan Bardella, who proposed one of the no-confidence motions.

(It should be remembered that Macron and von der Leyen don’t hail from the same party.) 

9. Her critics aren’t pulling their punches

“You have been accompanying the genocide in Gaza,” said Manon Aubry, co-chair of The Left, which proposed the other motion.

She also said: “You capitulated to Donald Trump.”

Bardella spoke of von der Leyen’s “trade surrender” and said the bloc’s migration and enlargement policies were eroding European sovereignty.

10. All is not rosy in the centrists’ garden

Von der Leyen ― like EPP Commission presidents before her ― has relied on Europe’s mainstream parties to keep her in power.

But that” pro-European majority”, as it’s called, “is malfunctioning,” according to liberal Renew Europe chief Valérie Hayer.

Voting in favor of von der Leyen, as her group will do, “doesn’t mean everything is fine,” Hayer said. “Because since the first motion of censure last July, we can’t say we’ve really made any progress.”

11. The Greens are not part of the von der Leyen club

VDL’s EPP is weakening Europe because it’s vacillating on “which side of the political spectrum they stand on,”  Greens co-leader Terry Reintke said.

The Greens have plenty of complaints, from the “late reaction” to suffering in Gaza to the scrapping of climate initiatives. But they won’t vote against her, Reintke said, because “do we really, in this crucial moment, want an institutional crisis?”

12. The ECR is on the fence

The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists are no real fans of von der Leyen but they don’t particularly agree with some of her critics either.

That will all add up to some of the group backing her in the confidence vote, and some not. That happened in July, too, when the Brothers of Italy party backed von der Leyen, while the Polish ECR delegation voted to remove her.

“In the ECR, every national delegation will be free to vote according to its conscience and in the interest of its people,” said leader Nicola Procaccini.

13. The world is watching (maybe)

Von der Leyen concluded her speech by saying she believed her words needed to “reverberate around Europe and beyond,” and the message was that “Europe stands together ― and it delivers together.”

Whether they’re listening in Prague, Budapest, Bratislava ― or even Berlin and Paris, for that matter ― is another question.

Von der Leyen looks almost certain to survive this week, but the wolves are circling.