BRUSSELS — EU countries have five years to prepare for war, according to a military plan that will be presented by the European Commission on Thursday and was seen by POLITICO.

“By 2030, Europe needs a sufficiently strong European defence posture to credibly deter its adversaries, as well as respond to any aggressions,” says the draft plan, which will be discussed by defense ministers late Wednesday before being presented to the College of Commissioners on Thursday. It goes to EU leaders next week.

The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 is a sign of the EU’s growing role in military affairs, a reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine and U.S. President Donald Trump’s unclear commitment to European security.

“A militarised Russia poses a persistent threat to European security for the foreseeable 
future,” says the document, which was first reported by Bloomberg.

While EU countries are rapidly increasing their defense budgets, much of that spending “remains overwhelmingly national, leading to fragmentation, cost-inflation and lack of 
interoperability,” says the 16-page document.

The EU executive body is pushing capitals to buy weapons together and wants at least 40 percent of defense procurement to be joint contracts by the end of 2027 — up from less than a fifth now. The roadmap also sets targets for at least 55 percent of arms purchases to come from EU and Ukrainian companies by 2028 and at least 60 percent by 2030.

Setting priorities

The document goes point by point through a series of priorities.

One of its main objectives is to fill EU capability gaps in nine areas: air and missile defense, enablers, military mobility, artillery systems, AI and cyber, missile and ammunition, drones and anti-drones, ground combat, and maritime. The plan also mentions areas like defense readiness and the role of Ukraine, which would be heavily armed and supported to become a “steel porcupine” able to deter Russian aggression.

It also includes timelines for three key projects: the Eastern Flank Watch, which will integrate ground defense systems with air defense and counter-drone systems and the “European Drone Wall” recently proposed by the Commission to better protect eastern countries; the European Air Shield to create a multi-layered air defense system; and a Defence Space Shield to protect the bloc’s space assets.

The Commission hopes EU leaders will approve those three projects by the end of the year.

To be ready by 2030, according to the draft roadmap, projects in all priority areas should be launched in the first half of 2026. By the end of 2028, projects, contracts and financing should be in place to tackle the most urgent gaps.

The Commission also wants to map the industrial capacity ramp-up needed to fill the gaps and identify supply chain risks and bottlenecks in critical raw materials. That could prove controversial, as European industry has been traditionally reluctant to share too much information about production and supply chains with Brussels.

Finding the money

The document says the EU will help mobilize up to €800 billion to spend on defense, including the €150 billion loans-for-weapons SAFE program, the €1.5 billion European Defence Industrial Programme — which is still under negotiation — the European Defence Fund and, once it’s adopted in 2027, the bloc’s next multi-year budget.

It underlines that countries will remain in control, stressing that “member States are and will remain sovereign for their national defence.” Despite that careful language, some member countries are bridling at the EU’s playing a greater role in defense — traditionally an area reserved for national governments.

“The overriding objective must be to prepare the conditions so that Member States can fulfil their national and international capability objectives,” Germany said in its official contribution to the EU’s Readiness 2030 Roadmap.

Sweden’s contribution, circulated among diplomats, said that “indicators must be output oriented and focusing on measuring tangible results,” rather than demanding to what extent countries are using specific tools like joint procurement.

The military plan, under preparation since the summer, makes an effort to address concerns from across the bloc, not just the countries that feel most threatened by Russia. In a nod to Southern European nations such as Italy and Spain, it says “Europe cannot afford being blind on threats coming from other parts of the world,” mentioning the Middle East and Africa.

The draft also takes pains to insist that the EU will coordinate closely with NATO. The alliance and some national capitals are worried about Brussels setting up a parallel defense structure that will complicate war plans rather than smoothly integrating with NATO.

The goal is to allow the EU to become more independent in a much more perilous world.

“Authoritarian states increasingly seek to interfere in our societies and economies,” says the draft. “Traditional allies and partners are also changing their  focus towards other regions of  the world … Europe’s defence posture and capabilities must be ready for the battlefields of tomorrow.”