BRUSSELS — The closer a country lies to Russia, the greater the chance that its people see the Kremlin as a top threat facing Europe — but that doesn’t mean the EU is viewed as a savior.
According to a new multi-country survey that YouGov conducted in seven EU countries, Russian aggression was seen as one of Europe’s biggest threats by 51 percent in Poland, 57 percent in Lithuania and 62 percent in Denmark — a country that may lie further from Russia but which controls the entrance to the Baltic Sea frequently transited by Russian shadow fleet tankers and military vessels. Denmark is also the world’s top donor of military aid to Ukraine as a percentage of gross domestic product.
In Germany, 36 percent saw Russian aggression as a top threat, followed by 31 percent in France, 22 percent in Spain and 20 percent in Italy. In France and Spain, immigration was seen as the biggest danger, while in Italy it was armed conflict.
Spanish and Italian respondents mentioned U.S. foreign policy as a threat just slightly less frequently than Russia: 22 percent of Spaniards and 20 percent of Italians viewed Moscow as a top threat, while 19 percent of Spaniards and 17 percent of Italians said the same about Washington.
The eastern countries and Denmark also felt very strongly about their membership in NATO, with over 80 percent approving, and a similar number feeling it was important to their security.
However, about half of Italians, Spaniards and French saw NATO membership positively, while only 29 percent of the French saw NATO as important to their country’s national defense — the lowest in any country polled.
The YouGov survey polled about 1,000 people per country in Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Poland and Spain from late September.
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Views were very mixed about the role the EU should play in defense.
The EU was started as a peace project, and until recently had very little to say on military matters. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed that, and the bloc is now pressing ahead with measures like its €150 billion Security Action For Europe loans-for-weapons scheme and the €1.5 billion European Defence Industry Programme aimed at promoting joint procurement and rebuilding the bloc’s military industrial complex.
In Poland, Italy and Germany, fewer than 40 percent of respondents said the EU should be able to make decisions about defense and security on behalf of EU countries. Lithuanian, Danish and French respondents were split, with about 40 percent favoring EU decision-making and a similar percentage insisting on an independent national say.
In Spain, 57 percent of respondents said the EU should make defense decisions on behalf of member countries, the highest in any of the countries surveyed.
Many member countries have reminded Brussels not to seek too large a role in defense and security matters, something capitals stressed again when commenting on the European Commission’s defense roadmap, presented last week.
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Linus Terhorst, a military sciences researcher at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said the split on how Russia is viewed is rooted in both geography and history.
Countries like Poland and Lithuania border Russia and were part of Moscow’s empire during the Cold War, while Denmark controls a maritime passage of key importance to Russia.
“If you look at how European societies discussed defense spending during the Cold War, you’ll see similar splits, with countries like Spain being fairly unbothered, and support increas[ing] the further east you went,” he said.
Terhorst added that many countries see Brussels as an initiator of defense collaboration rather than a regulator. “For example, you see this in the SAFE plan, where the EU is trying to lift some of the fiscal burden that some member states expect.”
EU leaders meeting this week will have to give their approval to the Commission’s defense roadmap, which underlines that countries will remain in control, stressing that “member States are and will remain sovereign for their national defence.”
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