“The Labour Party have 309,000 members, and when we overtake them, we will be the biggest political party in this country,” Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said back in February.

“That’s our goal. That’s our aim. That’s our target.”

After last year’s Boxing Day bust-up with Kemi Badenoch, Mr Farage was clear that Sir Keir Starmer’s tally was the next step.

However, the Reform UK leader might need to set his target a little further into the distance, with Labour recently announcing that it has 333,235 paid-up members

The figure, while still some 70,000 ahead of Reform UK, is down by almost 200,000 compared to when Sir Keir replaced Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader.

But Labour is becoming increasingly coy about its membership, with a surge in left-wing activists joining Zack Polanski’s Green Party.

Labour insiders had told The New Statesman that declining membership figures have already fallen below Reform UK’s 260,000 total.

The rumours prompted Mr Farage to demand answers from Southside.

He asked: “Why won’t Labour release their membership figures to the public?”

However, a well-placed Labour source reassured GB News that Reform still trails on paid-up members.

“We’re definitely still ahead of Reform,” they told The People’s Channel.

A Labour Party spokesman also insisted that the party is not prepared to change its rules to release the data, instead insisting the public will become aware at the next scheduled date.

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

So, when could we expect to see Mr Farage’s Reform UK overtake Labour?

It’s still relatively hard to tell. Reform UK’s rise has been far from uniform since Mr Farage returned to the helm.

Reform has seen peaks and troughs for months.

Sir Keir’s Reform-bashing conference speech delivered a huge boost to Mr Farage.

However, the aftermath of the Rupert Lowe debacle did result in a narrow drop in Reform UK’s total membership.

But it cannot be understated how rapidly Reform has managed to galvanise its grassroots.

There were just 70,000 members shortly after the 2024 General Election, surging to 134,000 on Boxing Day.

The 200,000 target was surpassed on February 9, jumping to 250,000 just before the Labour Party Conference.

Considering Reform UK’s rise of 11,693 members in the past month, GB News believes Mr Farage could surpass Labour’s total by May 7 next year.

The date would come as a hammer blow to Sir Keir just days after a hotly anticipated set of Local Elections across England, Scotland and Wales.

However, a lot can change in 196 days. A boost for Reform or a surge for the Green Party could play a pivotal role.

But the issue is far more significant than political sword-swinging. These are the foot-soldiers who will decide who wins the next General Election.