BERLIN — Politicians in Germany and Poland — home to the biggest Ukrainian refugee populations within the European Union — are threatening to yank back the welcome mat amid a sharp increase in the number of young Ukrainian men entering their countries in recent weeks after Kyiv loosened exit rules.

While sentiment within both countries is generally favorable toward Ukrainians, their growing presence is increasingly becoming a flashpoint wielded by far-right parties. With Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine going into its fourth winter, the debate is expected to intensify as millions risk being left without heating, water or electricity in the coming months due to ongoing attacks by the Kremlin.

In Germany, members of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s governing conservatives are warning that while the country will continue taking in Ukrainian refugees, public support for the Ukrainian cause could wane if young male emigrants are seen to be avoiding military service.

“We have no interest in young Ukrainian men spending their time in Germany instead of defending their country,” Jürgen Hardt, a senior foreign policy lawmaker from Merz’s conservatives, told POLITICO on Tuesday. “Ukraine makes its own decisions, but the recent change in the law has led to a trend of emigration that we must address.”

Poland’s far-right Confederation party went further, saying in a statement: “Poland cannot continue to be a refuge for thousands of men who should be defending their own country, while burdening Polish taxpayers with the costs of their desertion.” 

Ukrainian arrivals in both countries have increased significantly following the relaxation of Ukrainian exit rules over the summer — a move that ironically was intended to alleviate military recruitment issues by making it easier for young men to come and go.

Nearly 45,300 Ukrainian men between 18 and 22 years of age crossed the border to Poland from the beginning of 2025 until the loosening of exit restrictions at the end of August, according to numbers the Polish border guard sent to POLITICO. In the next two months that number soared to 98,500, or 1,600 per day.  

And many of the newcomers appear to have kept moving west: The number of young Ukrainian men aged 18 to 22 entering Germany rose from 19 per week in mid-August to between 1,400 and 1,800 per week in October, according to German media reports citing numbers from the German interior ministry.  

New rules

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy loosened the exit rules for men who aren’t yet eligible for military service, which begins at 25, at the end of August. Previously, men between the ages of 18 and 60 weren’t allowed to leave the country; under the new regulations, men aged between 18 and 22 can leave and return without risking prosecution.     

The change meant that young Ukrainian men already abroad were able to return without fearing they wouldn’t be allowed to leave again. The hope was they might remain and agree to be drafted when they turned 25.    

A second reason was to discourage parents from moving their sons abroad at the age of 16 or 17 — a trend authorities have flagged. Announcing the rule change in the summer, Zelenskyy argued: “If we want to keep boys in Ukraine, we really need them to finish school here first and for their parents not to take them away.” He said he feared they could otherwise “lose their connection with Ukraine.”   

Debate over social benefits

Germany and Poland host the most Ukrainian refugees within the European Union by far. About 1.2 million people who fled Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 live in Germany and nearly one million in Poland — over half of all Ukrainians with protected status in the bloc, according to Eurostat data.

Although Ukrainians account for over 6 percent of the Polish workforce and contribute significantly to economic growth, far-right politicians argue they’re getting too many social benefits. Nationalist President Karol Nawrocki recently vetoed legislation on helping Ukrainians, saying only those who work and pay taxes in Poland should get benefits.  

Similar demands have repeatedly been made by the ascendant far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Germany, which is now polling in first place. Along with demanding a stop to welfare payments to Ukrainians, the party is known for its skepticism toward military aid for Ukraine — at a time when Germany is Kyiv’s largest donor after the U.S.

Around 490,000 Ukrainian citizens of working age receive long-term unemployment benefits in Germany, according to data from the country’s employment agency.

Merz’s coalition — which is under increasing budgetary pressure and generally wants to reduce welfare spending — is working on a draft law that would deny the right to such benefits.

“Many people have mixed feelings about how we should deal with young Ukrainian men of military age who have fled to us and may be receiving social benefits. That is understandable,” Sebastian Fiedler, a lawmaker from the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which governs in a coalition with Merz’s conservatives, told POLITICO.  

But Fiedler, who heads the SPD group in the interior committee, added that his faction doesn’t see a need to act immediately — unlike Merz’s conservatives.  

“The SPD parliamentary group in the Bundestag remains committed to supporting Ukraine to the best of our ability,” he said. “Part of our dealings with Ukraine also means that we do not dictate to it when its own citizens can enter and leave the country. It is fundamentally not Germany’s job to decide which young people Ukraine sends to war and which it does not.” 

Wait and see

Others in Germany’s political leadership want to wait to see if arrivals numbers remain high before making any changes.

Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt, a member of the conservatives, said through a spokesperson that he wanted more data. “Currently, the possibility is being considered that this is an initial phase of increased migration following the entry into force of the regulation adopted by Ukraine in the summer, and that the number of young men seeking protection may decline again,” the spokesperson said. 

The ongoing debate in Germany was initiated by Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), which the interior minister belongs to.

Söder proposed to restrict the so-called Temporary Protection Directive at the EU level if Kyiv doesn’t voluntarily reduce arrivals. The rules provide Ukrainians who entered the bloc after February 2022 with an automatic protected status.   

“Our solidarity remains,” he said. “But it requires clear rules and responsibility on both sides.”   

Miłka Fijałkowska contributed to this report from Berlin, Wojciech Kość contributed from Warsaw.