Reform is expected to make further gains tomorrow, but Britain’s top elections guru has warned Nigel Farage against complacency.

There are five by-elections taking place across the country this week, with two Lib Dem seats up for grabs.

Reform has good reasons to be optimistic – it’s storming ahead in national polls on 26 per cent and it has a string of by-election wins under its belt.

However, a polling guru told the People’s Channel that formidable challenges still lie ahead for Reform ahead of the next general election.

“Nobody is popular because all parties are minorities now,” polling guru Sir John Curtice told GB News, suggesting that this could limit Reform’s ability to sweep the country.

“We are in a world of five-party fragmentation at the moment, so therefore everybody is going to be unpopular because nobody commands the majority of the election or anything close to them,” Curtice explained.

GB News has taken a closer look at the seats up for grabs tomorrow.

Wincheap ward, Cantebury

A Liberal Democrat seat is up for grabs in the Wincheap ward on Canterbury City Council following the resignation of Councillor Roben Franklin.

Mr Franklin was elected in 2023 alongside Labour and Co-operative Party Councillor, Dane Buckman.

Lib Dem candidate Guy Meurice will be hoping to keep hold of the seat in this weeks by-election.

Full list of candidates

• Colin Spooner – Reform UK
• Guy Meurice – Lib Dem
• Jasmin Dallos-Foreman – Labour
• Elliot Curryer – Conservative
• Peter Campbell – Green Party

Long Ashton ward, North Somerset

A by-election is set to take place in the Long Ashton ward on North Somerset council following the resignation of Green Party Councillor Stuart McQuillan in September.

Mr McQuillan took the “difficult decision” to leave his post as a result of plans to move out of the area.

He was first elected to serve as a councillor in North Somerset in May, 2019 and again following a re-election in 2023.

Announcing his resignation, Mr McQuillan said: “It has been a privilege to represent the residents of Long Ashton, Leigh Woods, Wraxall and Failand on North Somerset Council since 2019 when I was first elected.

“However, as my family and I will shortly be leaving North Somerset, I have taken the difficult decision to resign from the council.

“I am grateful to all the residents that have supported me, given me feedback and helped me over the years.

“I also want to thank all the officers who have helped me solve problems and help residents.

“Finally, I am proud to have been part of a cross-party administration and to have worked with members from all parties and none to deliver for the communities of North Somerset.”

Full list of candidates:

• Mike Dunn – Green Party
• James Evangelos Mervyn Gillham – Conservative
• Françoise Johnston – Liberal Democrats
• James Robert Read – Reform UK
• Ian Ridge – Labour

Ridgeway ward, Oxfordshire 

The Lib Dems will again be looking to fend off competition and keep hold of their seat in the Ridgeway ward on Vale of White Horse District Council in Oxfordshire.

It follows the resignation of Councillor Paul Barrow, who announced he would be leaving his post at the end of September, citing health reasons.

Dr Barrow, who was first elected in 2019, wrote in a post to social media: “Thank you for your support over the last six years.

“I will miss the work which has been fascinating and very rewarding. It has allowed me to really get involved in our seven amazing villages and parish councils and their business and occasionally to be able to help individuals.”

Full list of candidates

• Kiera Barnett – Green Party
• Rob Blundell – Labour
• Charlotte Dickson – Conservative
• Hannah Griffin – Lib Dem
• Henry De Kretser – Reform

Chapel St Leonards ward, Lincolnshire 

The by-election in the Chapel St Leonards ward on East Lindsey District Council, Lincolnshire, was called after Conservative Councillor Stephen Evans left his post.

Looking to keep the Tory seat is candidate Alan Vassar.

Full list of candidates:

• Jason Boswell – Independent
• Carole Irene Clark – Labour
• Paul Sutton – Reform
• David Brian Tucker – Lib Dems
• Alan Vassar – Conservatives
• Valerie Anne Worley – Independent

Gwynedd, Wales

A vacant seat also needs to be filled on Plaid Cymru-led Gwynedd Council in Wals in the Bethel a’r Felinheli division.

Plaid Cymru has put forward candidate Gwion Emyr.

Full list of candidates:

• Terry Temple – Reform
• Hedd Vaughan Thomas – Conservatives
• Kelly Louise O’Donnell – Independent
• Gwion Emyr – Plaid Cymru