KYIV — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is under fierce pressure to fire his powerful top aide Andriy Yermak amid a corruption scandal that risks spiraling into the country’s biggest domestic political crisis since Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The pressure to ditch Yermak — described to POLITICO by four senior Ukrainian officials involved in political discussions in Kyiv — poses a problem for Zelenskyy because it comes partly from within the ranks of his own Servant of the People party.

The crisis looks set to come to a head on Thursday, when Zelenskyy will hold crunch meetings with government officials and members of parliament. Yermak runs the presidential office and is a sharp-elbowed political operator who has been crucial in steering Zelenskyy’s rule since he took power in 2019. Some see him as almost a co-president.

The attacks on such a crucial ally could hardly come at a more sensitive moment for Zelenskyy. Kyiv faces a massive budget shortfall, and the president must convince his Western allies that Ukraine is a safe place to send billions of euros in vital funding. Two people directly involved in the political discussions said Zelenskyy would fight back and defend Yermak from the mounting criticism later this week.

While there have been attempts to link Yermak directly to the snowballing corruption scandal, the campaign against him is also a sign of broader frustration — within both the opposition and Zelenskyy’s party — over Yermak’s domineering presence in the presidential office. An earlier drive by that office to strip Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau of its independence triggered public fury in July.

Energy scandal

The immediate flashpoint rocking Ukrainian politics — and fueling the attack against Yermak — is a corruption scandal in the country’s shattered energy sector.

The controversy erupted last week after current and former officials were officially charged with manipulating contracts at Energoatom, the state nuclear energy company, to extract kickbacks. Government investigators say the network laundered roughly $100 million through a secret Kyiv-based office. Most have publicly denied the accusations.

Yermak’s political opponents are trying to link him directly to the scandal — saying either he or one of his lieutenants is the anonymous individual referred to as Ali Baba in wiretaps related to the energy case. The NABU anti-corruption bureau, however, says it can “neither confirm nor deny” that allegation, and Yermak himself protests his innocence.

“People mention me, and sometimes, absolutely without any evidence, they try to accuse me of things I don’t even know about,” he told POLITICO’s sister publication Welt in the Axel Springer Group last week, when asked directly whether he was involved.

The political pitfall for Yermak — amid such a high-profile scandal — is that his adversaries accuse him of having played a lead role in seeking to strip NABU of its independence just as it was looking into the Energoatom case.

“He’s the one who decided to pick a fight with NABU,” a senior Ukrainian adviser told POLITICO, asking not to be identified to be able to speak frankly. “Had he not done that, basically, they think this scandal would have just been, you know, swept under the rug or it would have come out later in a year or so,” the adviser added.

“His enemies see this as an opportunity to try to get rid of him.”

That view was echoed by other insiders. “Of course, Yermak’s opponents and also people that he has stripped of influence and schemes, are asking the president to fire him,” a senior Ukrainian official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity to speak candidly.

Damage repair

Zelenskyy previously attempted to repair the damage from the energy scandal by imposing sanctions on his former business partner Tymur Mindich. He also launched a reshuffle and an audit at Energoatom and other state energy companies. Mindich has fled to Israel and could not be contacted for comment.

Ukrainian watchdogs and MPs, however — especially from the opposition but also from the ruling Servant of the People party — claimed he had not done enough and demanded a more thorough clean-up. All the Ukrainian officials who spoke to POLITICO expected Zelenskyy would have to address the matter directly on Thursday.

Former President Petro Poroshenko, who lost elections to Zelenskyy in 2019 after a similar corruption scandal involving his own close allies, said his faction had started collecting signatures to oust the entire government, citing the need to restore public trust and reassure Kyiv’s war allies.

“Ukraine is experiencing the greatest threat to its existence, starting from February 24, 2022. Now it is necessary to resolve the issue of the Ukrainian people’s trust in the government, in the Verkhovna Rada [parliament]. The issue is of partners’ trust in the state of Ukraine,” Poroshenko said in a Facebook post on Tuesday.

An MP confirmed to POLITICO that dissent was also present in the president’s Servant of the People faction in the Ukrainian parliament, particularly following NABU’s release of audio tapes on which suspects in the case allegedly discuss corruption schemes.

“The reason is the tapes from NABU. Everyone understands the tapes are leading to him [Yermak], and that he was behind the July crisis [regarding NABU’s independence]. If this becomes publicly known, it will undermine all [members of the] Servants [party],” said the MP, who was also granted anonymity.

 “There’s a high probability he will indeed resign, but we will believe it when we see it,” the MP added.

POLITICO sought comment from Yermak, but he is currently traveling in Western Europe with Zelenskyy and was not able to respond immediately.

Zelenskyy is expected to address the matter when he returns.

Two of the Ukrainian officials said Zelenskyy had told them he would not give in to the pressure and would keep Yermak, but that he would make some government changes, possibly bringing in some opposition figures to appease critics.

“This week, there will be relevant conversations with government officials and a meeting with the leadership of the parliament and MPs of the Servant of the People faction. I am preparing several necessary legislative initiatives and principled quick decisions that our state needs,” Zelenskyy said on Tuesday, while providing no further details.

 Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an outspoken critic of Zelenskyy and an opposition MP from the Holos party, told POLITICO that some MPs from the Servant of the People party were in revolt and suspected a link between Yermak and the corruption schemes.

But NABU head Semen Kryvonos has publicly refused to either “confirm or deny” that Yermak features in the wiretaps from the energy sector scandal.  

“Of course, they would not publicly tell you details of an ongoing investigation. Lawmakers assume that without Yermak, this all would not have happened,” Zheleznyak said.

Ibrahim Naber of Welt contributed reporting.