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EU ‘minutes from big casualties’ in Russian hybrid war, Lithuanian minister warns

BRUSSELS — EU foreign ministers will be briefed on Thursday about a spate of sabotage attempts and airspace incursions that Russia’s neighbors say marks a “very dangerous phase of escalation” by the Kremlin, and one that endangers civilians.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys told POLITICO that the Kremlin’s shadowy campaign of subversion shows “we are reaching the hot phases of escalation.”

The comments come after Poland concluded that a Sunday explosion that damaged railway tracks in the east of the country had been an act of sabotage backed by the Kremlin.

“This is a very dangerous phase of escalation and we should address it really seriously because we are minutes from big casualties here,” said Budrys, who will present his concerns his counterparts at Thursday’s Foreign Affairs Council. “If it would be successful, these operations, this sabotage that was conducted in Poland, we would be talking in a different environment, with dead people as a consequence.”

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski will give ministers an update during the session in Brussels, as an investigation gets underway into the suspected railway sabotage. Warsaw said Tuesday that military-grade C-4 explosives had been used in what appeared to be an unsuccessful attempt to derail a train and film the ensuing carnage. It suspects two Ukrainian nationals working for Russia who have fled to Belarus.

Despite the Polish incident, Budrys said the scope of the Kremlin’s actions is far wider. “Everyone thinks that on the eastern front line it is always more intense — it is not — when you count the real cases of sabotage elsewhere in continental Europe, there were more than there were in the Baltics and in Poland.”

Suspicious drones have been reported across the EU, sparking alerts from Copenhagen to Belgium, while hundreds of incidents have been probed as potential efforts to destabilize countries and intimidate the public.

Globsec, a Prague-based think tank, calculated there were more than 110 acts of sabotage and attempted attacks carried out in Europe between January and July, mainly in Poland and France, by people with links to Russia.

Speaking on Wednesday, the EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas said: “Russia is trying to do two things: On one hand to test us, to see how far they can go … And next they also try to sow fear within our society.”

Earlier this week, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto called on European countries to react to Russia’s provocations.

“We are under attack and the hybrid bombs continue to fall: The time to act is now,” he said.

Lithuania also sounded the alarm after balloons sent from Russia’s ally Belarus repeatedly grounded planes in EU airspace.

At Thursday’s meeting it will present a paper — seen by POLITICO — citing assessments that the incursions, ostensibly by cigarette smugglers, had the backing of Belarus’ authoritarian regime, which “is fully aware of these hybrid attacks and unwilling to prevent them.”

The EU ministers will also consider a new package of sanctions against Russia — the 20th since the start of Moscow’s full-scale war in Ukraine — as well deterring Belarus from hybrid tactics with additional economic and political penalties.

LP Staff Writers

Writers at Lord’s Press come from a range of professional backgrounds, including history, diplomacy, heraldry, and public administration. Many publish anonymously or under initials—a practice that reflects the publication’s long-standing emphasis on discretion and editorial objectivity. While they bring expertise in European nobility, protocol, and archival research, their role is not to opine, but to document. Their focus remains on accuracy, historical integrity, and the preservation of events and individuals whose significance might otherwise go unrecorded.

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