BRUSSELS — Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Vincent Van Peteghem has emerged as the immediate favorite to lead a powerful group of eurozone finance ministers after the shock resignation of Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe.

Five eurozone diplomats tipped Van Peteghem as the most likely candidate to succeed Donohoe as Eurogroup chief after the Irishman stepped down on Tuesday to take a new job as the World Bank’s No. 2. The diplomats and other officials cited in this article were granted anonymity to discuss confidential talks.

However, the Belgian government’s opposition to using the cash value of frozen Russian state assets to finance a €140 billion reparations loan to war-ravaged Ukraine is a potential liability for Van Peteghem’s leadership bid — opening the door for rival bids from Greece and Spain.

The Eurogroup president is a prestigious post that can wield considerable influence, as became apparent during the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis. Outside of turbulent times, the president sets the agenda and chairs monthly meetings of the eurozone’s finance ministers, while attending international fora, such as the G7 and G20 groups of the world’s most powerful nations.

With news of Donohoe’s exit catching everyone off guard, eurozone capitals are still trying to decide whether they’ll pitch a candidate to lead the ministerial group.

The Eurogroup vacancy also complicates how countries position themselves ahead of the looming race for seats on the European Central Bank’s six-person executive board over the next two years — including its own president. The unwritten rule is that a country can’t hold two top EU jobs, forcing capitals to choose their targets.

The center-right European People’s Party, from which Donohoe hails, is keen to retain the Eurogroup post, putting Van Peteghem in a comfortable position to take the spot. That said, political plotting has already begun, and dissenting voices are already raising the issue of Belgium’s opposition towards the Ukraine loan.

A Belgian victory “is not gonna happen unless they come up with the reparations loan,” one of the eurozone diplomats said.

But Van Peteghem’s supporters say Belgium’s predicament over the Ukraine loan should not impair his chances of getting the Eurogroup job. Several countries appreciate that the Belgian government could face significant financial and legal risks if the EU uses the frozen assets to fund the €140 billion loan.

While Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever is demanding that EU capitals provide national guarantees that can pay out at a moment’s notice, that shouldn’t count against Van Peteghem, his supporters said, especially when EU leaders have the final say over the mega loan to Ukraine, not the Eurogroup.

Deputy eurozone finance ministers are scheduled to discuss the next steps on Thursday afternoon on a call.

The rivals

Any resistance to Van Peteghem’s bid will encourage potential rivals, such as Greece’s Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, also an EPP member, and Spain’s Carlos Cuerpo, a socialist who ran and lost against Donohoe in the last Eurogroup election in July.

Commenting on Pierrakakis’ potential candidacy, a separate diplomat told POLITICO: “It’s reasonable for this idea to exist, because Greece is at its best moment and Kyriakos Pierrakakis is a minister who has made a very positive impression at the Eurogroup meetings and has stood out. Nevertheless, nothing has been decided yet.”

The secret ballot for picking Donohoe’s successor is slated to take place in December or January, coinciding with the race for the ECB’s next top job. The ECB’s vice president, Spain’s Luis de Guindos, is preparing to leave the post in June, and his replacement will have to be chosen by March.

Rather than retain its seat, several officials believe that Spain is eyeing a bigger prize: either the ECB presidency, where former Bank of Spain governor Pablo Hernández de Cos is seen as a strong candidate, or the influential chief economist role, where Cuerpo is a potential candidate.

For the time being, Cuerpo is still weighing his chances — he told reporters on Tuesday that “there will be time to talk about the Eurogroup.”

Cuerpo winning the Eurogroup presidency would jeopardize Spain’s ECB ambitions, according to two officials. That might discourage him from running for the Eurogroup post.

“We’ll see whether the Spaniards want to put their eggs in one basket,” said one of the officials.