BRUSSELS — A jolt of optimism that Brussels and the Latin American countries of Mercosur can finally seal their mammoth trade deal this year has given way to trepidation that everything could fall apart just before the finish line.

The biggest hurdle that remains is approving a workaround to protect European farm markets in the event of a sudden influx of produce from the Mercosur bloc, which groups Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

The safeguards, calibrated in consultation with Paris and presented in early October, seemed enough at first to reassure skeptical politicians and farmers in France and Poland.

But the mood in the European Parliament and in some capitals has turned volatile.

And with the clock ticking down to a tentative Dec. 20 date for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to fly to Brazil for a formal signing ceremony, the path to that successful outcome is narrowing.

Brazil’s ambassador to the EU, Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, is bullish that the agreement, which has been 25 years in the making and would create a free-trade area spanning nearly 800 million people, can still be done.

“What will happen will be exactly what happened with other agreements that the EU negotiated with other countries: In the beginning there was a lot of backlash, but then suddenly people discovered that it was a mutual benefit equation,” da Costa e Silva said at an event in Brussels last week.

To close the deal in time, everything needs to go right. European lawmakers must first approve the additional safeguards, after which the Council, the intergovernmental branch of the EU, then needs to sign off on the broader deal. Finally, the Commission must sign it.

Parliament unchained

The Parliament has witnessed chaotic scenes in recent days as pro-Mercosur lawmakers tried, and failed, to fast-track a vote to approve the safeguards.

Although seemingly only a technical measure, the safeguard text is a crucial political condition for President Emmanuel Macron of France — the EU’s second-largest country — to back the overall agreement. 

The Council has concluded its work on the safeguards, and is waiting for the Parliament to move forward. 

The text will now tentatively be put to a committee vote in the Parliament on Dec. 8, followed by a Dec. 16 vote in the plenary — just four days before the planned signing ceremony.  

“We have been negotiating this agreement for 25 years and now we are being told that we must act quickly,” said Céline Imart, a French MEP from the European People’s Party group and a farmer herself. 

Adding to the headaches, over 140 lawmakers have called for a resolution seeking a legal opinion from the Court of Justice of the European Union on whether the overall deal is compatible with the European treaties. 

That would paralyze the Parliament’s approval of the safeguards until the court — known for its lengthy procedures — rules on the issue.

Parliament President Roberta Metsola rejected the request on the grounds that the Council had not yet weighed in on the agreement. Those lawmakers have criticized the decision and are now pushing for further explanations from the Parliament’s own legal service on whether Metsola overstepped her powers. 

The home stretch

With U.S. President Donald Trump breathing down Europe’s neck, fence-sitters like the Netherlands and Italy have come to terms with the fact that the deal would offer a welcome boost for the bloc’s struggling exporters.

Even Macron struck a conciliatory tone after meeting Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in early November. 

Still, in the Council, where a qualified majority of EU countries is needed to approve the deal, the battle is not yet won.

Poland — one of the countries Brussels had hoped to soothe with the new safeguard rules — this week restated its opposition. “Our position is clearly defined: We will vote against, despite the agreement on safeguards that has been reached,” Michal Baranowski, Poland’s undersecretary of state in the Ministry of Economic Development, said Monday. 

Confusion at the highest level hasn’t helped either. 

At the last European leaders’ summit in October, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz prematurely announced that EU leaders had unanimously backed the contentious deal. 

That forced European Council President António Costa to clarify that he had merely sought to assess next steps with European leaders. France followed up by seeking fresh reassurances that the European market would be protected from agricultural products that don’t meet the bloc’s standards.

If the approval process hasn’t already gone off track by then, the EU leaders’ summit on Dec. 18-19 in Brussels could still deliver some last-minute drama before von der Leyen can catch that flight to Brazil.

“Ursula von der Leyen already has her tickets to Brazil. It is up to us to ensure that she only goes there for a holiday,” added Imart, the French MEP.