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French far-right star Bardella’s rise in polls puts Le Pen on the defensive

PARIS — Marine Le Pen is trying to quash mounting speculation that she could get sidelined by National Rally President Jordan Bardella on her road to the Elysée after a series of flattering polls for her protégé. 

Le Pen, who is currently banned from running in the 2027 presidential election pending an appeal of her embezzlement conviction, is in an increasingly awkward situation after two recent polls showed that 30-year-old Bardella is gaining traction as a presidential candidate at Le Pen’s expense.

Asked Tuesday on TV station BFMTV why Bardella was only a plan B candidate considering his favorable polling, Le Pen said: “Because we decided as much.”  

“We are the ones who decide, Jordan and me,” she said.

Le Pen was found guilty last year of embezzling European Parliament funds and sentenced to an immediate five-year ban from running for public office. She will return to court in January after appealing all charges, which she has repeatedly denied and framed as politically motivated. She has said Bardella will run in her place if the appeal court upholds the election ban, but a decision won’t be known before spring. 

Shifting dynamic

But while Bardella is officially his party’s plan B, polls show he is starting to outshine his boss. In an IFOP-Fiducial poll unveiled Tuesday, 44 percent of respondents said they wanted Bardella to run in the 2027 presidential election against 40 percent for Le Pen.

Last week, a survey from pollster Odoxa showed Bardella winning against all the other candidates polled, beating the likes of center-right Edouard Philippe to leftist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Le Pen wasn’t even polled.

While polls this early before an election have to be taken with a serious grain of salt, the dynamic hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Renaud Labaye, the National Rally group’s secretary-general in the National Assembly and a close adviser to Le Pen, said the poll was good news for the party, showing “the dynamic was on [their] side.” 

Privately, party heavyweights say they don’t doubt Bardella’s loyalty but admit his rise raises uncomfortable questions for their camp. 

While Le Pen must constantly face off questions over her viability as a candidate, Bardella is triumphantly touring the country to promote his newest book, drawing crowds in what many see as an ideal launching pad for a presidential run. 

A National Rally lawmaker close to Le Pen, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Le Pen’s truly believes Bardella supports her. But, the lawmaker admitted, the book tour can also be seen as Bardella laying the groundwork for his own presidential candidacy.  

LP Staff Writers

Writers at Lord’s Press come from a range of professional backgrounds, including history, diplomacy, heraldry, and public administration. Many publish anonymously or under initials—a practice that reflects the publication’s long-standing emphasis on discretion and editorial objectivity. While they bring expertise in European nobility, protocol, and archival research, their role is not to opine, but to document. Their focus remains on accuracy, historical integrity, and the preservation of events and individuals whose significance might otherwise go unrecorded.

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