PARIS — France is at risk of ending the year without a budget deal as former French Prime Minister and current presidential candidate Edouard Philippe shapes up to be a major obstacle to the current government, despite their nominal alliance.

One French minister couldn’t hold back their shock when they found out Tuesday that Philippe’s Horizons party and its 34 lawmakers would either abstain or vote against the social security budget next week — a dangerous sign that the risk of France going into 2026 without a proper fiscal plan is increasing by the day.

“What an asshole,” muttered the minister, a conservative granted anonymity to candidly share views on the state of French politics. “It’s insane … we’re not going to have a budget.”

Lawmakers must get serious about shaving the deficits of next year’s social security budget and the state budget, a separate piece of legislation, if they want to convince markets that the European Union’s second-largest economy has not become an ungovernable nation hurtling toward a debt crisis.

France is currently sitting on €3.4 trillion in debt and is seeking to bring down a budget deficit expected to come in at 5.4 percent of gross domestic product this year. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said that next year’s budget that next year’s budget will reduce that figure to no more than 5 percent.

Someone close to Lecornu’s team, also granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the head of government knows Philippe is staking out a political position and was not willing to give the PM free rein, but “that doesn’t mean [Philippe] has to ruin the budget.”

Philippe, President Emmanuel Macron’s first prime minister, announced Tuesday that Horizons had unanimously agreed it could not support the social security bill because it did not do enough to cut the budget deficit.

Though the party controls only 34 of the National Assembly’s 577 seats, that small bloc could prove decisive in a vote in France’s fractured parliament.

Lecornu’s ability to shape legislation is hampered by both those divisions and his vow not to use a constitutional backdoor to pass his budget, a promise he made in October to ensure his government was not toppled.

Now, however, rumblings are growing louder that Lecornu has made a strategic error depriving him of a key tool needed to avert budgetary chaos — even if at the time it helped ensured his survival.

Conservative leader Bruno Retailleau, a former minister who served in previous minority governments during Macron’s second term, urged Lecornu in a radio interview to go back on his word and trigger the constitutional clause, Article 49.3, to pass “a budget aligned with our nation’s interest.”

Such a move would be risky too, as lawmakers are allowed to respond to the triggering of Article 49.3 by putting forward a motion of no confidence. That’s what they did last year when then–Prime Minister Michel Barnier tried to ram through his own social security legislation, and Barnier was ousted.

Whatever happens in the coming days, the risk of a U.S.-style shutdown is minimal. Lawmakers can pass legislation to roll over the 2025 state budget into next year. To keep the country’s social safety net solvent, MPs can pass ad hoc legislation approving short-term borrowing and treasury advances until a proper bill is adopted.

Government spokesperson Maud Bregeon insisted that each individual MP would be responsible for the outcome of the vote, not just political groups.

“There’s is no plan B,” Bregeon said at a press conference on Tuesday.