Nigel Farage has a 50/50 chance of becoming the next Prime Minister, a former Tory MP who defected to Reform UK has said.

Chris Green, 52, the former Conservative MP for Bolton West from 2015 to 2024, told Chopper’s Political Podcast that he had not yet decided whether to stand as a candidate for Reform at the next general election.

Mr Green is one of three ex-Conservative MPs who lost their seats at last year’s general election and have now jumped ship to Reform UK.

The other two were former deputy Tory party chairman Jonathan Gullis and Lia Nici.

In his first interview since his defection, Mr Green told the podcast that he had decided to make the jump to Reform came after attending this year’s Conservative party conference.

Asked what odds he would give on Mr Farage, Reform’s leader, becoming the next Prime Minister Green said: “I probably give evens at the moment, but it’s a lot to fight for. There’s a lot of work to do.”

Asked if this meant a “50/50 chance”, he replied: “Yes.”

Reform UK has led or shared the lead in every political poll in the UK since April this year. There are well over a dozen ex-Conservative MPs who have now jumped ship to Reform UK.

Listen or watch to Chopper’s Political Podcast on YouTube, Apple podcasts or Spotify from 6am on Friday.