BRUSSELS — Donald Trump’s attack on Europe as “decaying” with “weak” leaders has renewed the EU’s push to get serious about diversifying its economic, military and political ties ― and cutting reliance on the U.S.

Leaders at a summit in Brussels on Thursday are supposed to sign off on European support for Ukraine, defense spending and measures aimed at boosting Europe’s competitiveness over the U.S. and China.

But while Europe is determined to go it alone after decades of leaning on its friends across the Atlantic, nothing’s that easy.

While the American president’s criticism has persuaded the EU’s leadership that making progress on a stalled trade deal with Latin America ― Mercosur ― would be the best way to showcase its geopolitical heft in a region that is increasingly courted by China and the U.S., France and other countries are holding out.

“The answer to the U.S. on Europe’s ‘decay,’ the answer to the U.S. National Security Strategy, to the U.S. trade deal, the answer to China, to Russia, to the increased transactionalism between powers is Mercosur,” a senior EU official told POLITICO.

Sealing the agreement would require EU leaders to confront entrenched resistance in France — and growing doubts in Italy — where hostility to the deal has permeated the entire political class for years, over fears it could expose their influential farmers to a flood of cheaper Latin American produce.

For proponents of the agreement, boosting links with the Mercosur bloc, which groups Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil, is a key test of whether Paris really wants Europe to stand on its own after years of being the loudest champion of Europe’s sovereignty.

Golden opportunity

A group of governments led by Germany and Spain argue the moment has come for France to back up its talk of sovereignty, warning that Paris’ blockade of the Mercosur deal is undermining Europe’s push to stand on its own.

To those countries, Mercosur represents a golden opportunity for their companies to expand into new, like-minded markets — away from China or the U.S.

“We are pretty much convinced that if there is no possibility of a deal this week then it’s probably going to be dead,” said a German government official. “We see that the deal already starts unraveling.”

And after years in which Paris championed Europe’s push for “strategic autonomy,” they warn France seems unable, or unwilling, to reconcile that ambition with its longstanding rejection of the Latin American deal.

But for France, there’s no paradox.

“For Paris, this stance aligns neatly with its vision of ‘strategic autonomy’: The EU should do everything possible to protect its producers and uphold its standards,” said Georgina Wright, a senior fellow specializing in France, EU and U.S. relations at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank.

In France and Poland, the deal is so toxic across the political spectrum that reassurances from the European Commission have fallen on deaf ears. This despite efforts by Brussels to come up with additional cash for farmers and to impose tariffs if cheap Brazilian beef undercuts domestic farmers. 

Paris is worried that the deal will fuel public anger toward the political establishment, with the far right leading in opinion polls for the country’s presidential elections in 2027.

“But this stance is seen by a majority of member states as counterproductive at a time when the EU is looking to diversify its trade relations to respond to pressure from the U.S. and China. France is seen as uncompromising, refusing to budge even though it is in the minority,” Wright added.

Fear of defense power grab

But it’s not just about trade. Increasing concerns about U.S. unpredictability and the scale of Russian aggression are driving European countries to take charge of their own security. 

The European Commission is pushing member countries to sign up to so-called flagship defense projects and pool resources on key areas like drones and anti-drone systems.

However, EU heavyweights such as France and Germany have reacted skeptically to the proposals since they were unveiled over the summer. Paris and Berlin worry the moves would undercut their national priorities and give too much power to Brussels over defense policy.

The flagship projects do not feature on the latest draft summit conclusions, seen by POLITICO. But while Paris said they were not on the agenda Thursday, Nordic countries are still hoping to salvage the plans.

Two EU officials said the bloc’s executive has been working to reassure them that Brussels isn’t overreaching, and that they will still have clear control over their assets and spending.

The difficulty in signing off on more collaboration, even as Russian fighter jets and drones breach EU airspace, worries many that they aren’t moving fast enough against hostile states and competitors that can act by executive fiat.

Deal on the line

Nowhere is the EU’s difficulty in striking out alone clearer than in the quarrel over using frozen Russian assets to underwrite a €210 billion loan to keep Ukraine’s finances afloat.

Whether Trump is fueling Europe’s strategic autonomy drive — or holding it back — decision time is fast approaching on key issues.

“We can have discussions at evenings, at weekends, through the night,” a second official said of the preparations for Thursday’s summit. “But when an issue matters this much, we really don’t have any option but to get on and do it.”

Nicholas Vinocur contributed reporting.