BRUSSELS — The U.S. and EU are hoping to attract $800 billion of public and private funds to help rebuild Ukraine once Russia ends its full-scale invasion, according to a document obtained by POLITICO.

The 18-page document outlines a 10-year plan to guarantee Ukraine’s recovery with a fast-tracked path toward EU membership. The European Commission circulated the plans with EU capitals ahead of the leaders’ summit Thursday evening where the document, dated Jan. 22, was addressed, according to three EU officials and diplomats who were granted anonymity to talk about the sensitive topic.

While Brussels and Washington are lining up hundreds of billions of dollars in long-term funding and pitching Ukraine as a future EU member and investment destination, the strategy hinges on a ceasefire that remains elusive — leaving the prosperity plan vulnerable as long as the fighting continues.

The funding strategy stretches until 2040 alongside an immediate 100-day operational plan to get the project off the ground. But the prosperity plan will struggle to attract outside investment if the conflict rumbles on, according to the world’s largest money manager, BlackRock, which is advising on the reconstruction plan in a pro-bono capacity.

“Think about it. If you’re a pension fund, you’re fiduciary towards your clients, your pensioners. It’s nearly impossible to invest into a war zone,” BlackRock’s vice chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, said Wednesday in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos. “I think it has to be sequenced and that’s going to take some time.”

The prosperity plan is part of a 20-point peace blueprint that the U.S. is attempting to broker between Kyiv and Moscow. It explicitly assumes that security guarantees are already in place and is not intended as a military roadmap. Instead, it focuses on how Ukraine can transition from emergency assistance to self-sustaining prosperity.

A three-way meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. will take place in Abu Dhabi on Friday and Saturday, as the all-out conflict nears its fourth anniversary. The U.S. is set to play a prominent role in Ukraine’s recovery. Rather than framing Washington primarily as a donor, the document positioned the U.S. as a strategic economic partner, investor and credibility anchor for Ukraine’s recovery. 

The note anticipates direct participation by U.S. companies and expertise on the ground, and highlights America’s role as a mobilizer of private capital. BlackRock’s chief executive, Larry Fink, has sat in on peace talks with Kyiv alongside U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff.

Show me the money

Over the next 10 years, the EU, the U.S. and international financial bodies, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have pledged to spend $500 billion of public and private capital, the document said.

The Commission intends to spend a further €100 billion on Kyiv through budget support and investment guarantees, as part of the bloc’s next seven-year budget from 2028. This funding is expected to unlock €207 billion in investments for Ukraine. The U.S. pledged to mobilize capital through a dedicated U.S.-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, but did not attach a figure. 

While Trump has slashed military and humanitarian support to Ukraine during the war, it showed willingness to invest in the country after the end of the conflict. Washington said in the document that it will invest in critical minerals, infrastructure, energy and technology projects in Ukraine. 

But business is unlikely to boom before the eastern front falls silent.

“It’s very hard to see that happening at scale as long as you have drones and missiles flying,” BlackRock’s Hildebrand said.

Kathryn Carlson reported from Davos, Switzerland.