WARSAW — U.S. President Donald Trump acquired another powerful European ally after Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Sunday’s Polish presidential election.

It’s terrible news for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose domestic reform agenda is now in tatters after the failure of liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski to win the presidency, defeated 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent by Nawrocki.

Getting Trzaskowski into the ornate presidential palace in downtown Warsaw that once housed Russian governors was crucial to Tusk’s hopes of restoring rule of law and powering ahead with a domestic agenda that included everything from reform of the social security system to changes to hot-button social issues like allowing same-sex partnerships and loosening Poland’s draconian abortion rules.

Perhaps most worryingly for Poland’s government, a win for Trzaskowski was also meant to offer certainty over Poland’s access to billions of euros of EU funds. Nawrocki’s victory now raises questions about this financial lifeblood as he is likely to block key judicial reforms.

“Tusk’s reform agenda is, if not dead in the water, then at least dying,” said Ben Stanley, an associate professor at the Center for the Study of Democracy at the SWPS University in Warsaw.

Populists in power

Nawrocki joins other Central European populists such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico who are skeptical about the EU, keen on Trump and his vision of destroying traditional elites and unleashing culture wars, and lukewarm toward Ukraine and its fight for survival against Russia.

“Trzaskowski’s win would have meant a unified voice for Warsaw on European and transatlantic affairs, but with Nawrocki, we’re likely to see a much stronger split — especially on eastern policy and relations with the U.S., which differ from Tusk’s approach,” said Adam Traczyk, executive director at More In Common, an international think tank.

During the campaign, Nawrocki visited Trump in the the Oval Office and received no-holds-barred support from U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem.

“Donald Trump is a strong leader for us, but you have an opportunity to have just as strong of a leader in Karol if you make him the leader of this country,” she said while in Poland, and denounced Trzaskowski as a “socialist” and “an absolute train wreck of a leader.”

Nawrocki, who trumpets traditional values, is no fan of LGBTQ+ rights, wants a halt to most immigration, is leery of ambitious EU projects and said he would block Ukraine’s effort to join NATO.

But unlike Fico and Orbán, who rule their countries, Nawrocki has a more marginal role. Polish presidents have a mostly ceremonial function, but they can veto legislation. This is a particular problem for Tusk, whose parliamentary majority cannot overrride the veto.

That’s what incumbent President Andrzej Duda, backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, has been doing since Tusk and his coalition took power in December 2023. Nawrocki will continue that effort.

“Nawrocki will see blocking Tusk’s every move not only as a means to stymieing the government’s rule-of-law reforms, but also as a means of proving the coalition’s lack of efficacy ahead of the next parliamentary elections,” Stanley said.

A ‘ruthless’ leader

Confrontation is already in the air.

Immediately after the polls closed on Sunday night, and when it was still unclear who had won, Nawrocki said his victory was crucial to prevent Tusk from seizing absolute power.

Jacek Sasin, a senior member of PiS, said on Monday that Nawrocki will be a “ruthless” president.

“Karol Nawrocki will not back down from anything, he will not make any compromises. He will pursue the interests of Poland and Poles very strongly,” he told Radio Zet.

Nawrocki’s victory is unlikely to have much of an impact on foreign and EU policy, where the government takes the lead. That means Tusk’s approach of junking the eight years of isolationism, EU-skepticism and anti-German views that dominated when PiS ruled from 2015 to 2023 won’t change.

Tusk is pushing hard for Poland to set the direction of the EU alongside Germany and France. Until Sunday he had been a leader of the triumvirate, with French President Emmanuel Macron damaged politically, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz still finding his feet. Now Tusk joins the ranks of the walking wounded.

Weakened at home, Tusk is unlikely to remain the EU’s standard-bearer for mainstream politics and a counter to populism, said Renata Mieńkowska-Norkiene, a political scientist at the University of Warsaw who specializes in European integration.

“Tusk let his attention drift away from domestic politics, as he focused on international matters more. Now he’s going to pay the price,” Mieńkowska-Norkiene said.

But making progress in domestic politics will be very difficult.

Thanks to dissensions with the ruling coalition and opposition from Duda, the Tusk government didn’t manage to ease Poland’s strict abortion laws, legalize civil partnerships, build more housing, or give environmental protection higher priority.

With PiS ebullient over Nawrocki’s victory and preparing to storm back to power in the 2027 parliamentary election — or earlier if it can force a collapse of the government — Nawrocki has little reason to play ball with Tusk.

Frustration over the lack of progress is driving down the government’s support; it’s down to just 32 percent in May from a high of 41 percent in early 2024. Meanwhile, the percentage of those opposing the government has risen to 44 percent, the highest since Tusk took office.

That also leaves the effort to return Poland to rule of law uncompleted.

During PiS’s time in office, the party went to war with Brussels over its deep changes to the legal system, which the EU said undermined the bloc’s democratic principles by politicizing judges. In response, the European Commission froze €137 billion in EU funds earmarked for Poland.

The Commission unblocked those funds last year, but largely on the strength of promises from Tusk and not on many concrete steps to reform the justice system, which were blocked by Duda.

When asked whether the government could now risk losing those funds, European Commission Spokesperson Markus Lammert said: “We will continue monitoring and we will support the government in their efforts.”

“The rule of law repair process in Poland just got incredibly more difficult,” Jakub Jaraczewski, a researcher at Reporting Democracy, a think tank focused on rule of law, posted on social media. “I expect President Nawrocki to be even less cooperative than Duda, as Nawrocki will work hard for a PiS parliamentary election victory. Tough times ahead.”