South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae-myung, promises to keep selling weapons to Europe despite his conciliatory stance toward China and Russia.

In 2023, South Korea exported $557 million in weapons, with $320 million worth of arms going to Poland alone. Lee has promised to boost arms exports, treating the defense sector as a “new growth engine.”

Romania is also a big buyer for South Korean arms companies, which are looking to gain market share in further European countries as the continent rearms to face down the threat posed by Russia.

In terms of Ukraine, while South Korean law prohibits sending weapons to war zones, the country transferred hundreds of thousands of artillery rounds to the U.S. in 2023, freeing up American stocks for the country to defend itself against Russia.

Lee’s election victory Tuesday was watched closely in Europe and among NATO countries. South Korea — along with Japan, New Zealand and Australia — is forging a much closer relationship with the alliance as NATO looks to strengthen ties with like-minded countries in Asia.

“Our partnership is built on shared values and common interests, from trade, to innovation and defence,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote in her congratulatory message to Lee.

However, there are worries about foreign policy under Lee, who could be less pro-American than his predecessor Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon was impeached after a short-lived attempt to impose martial law.

Lee was the opposition leader when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He scolded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for “provoking” Russia and vehemently opposed weapons transfers to Ukraine, as that would mean “effectively a closure” for Korean companies in Russia.

He has also pledged to repair strained relations with China and North Korea. With a track record of criticizing the U.S., he has signaled a more cautious stance toward alignment with NATO, saying he may not attend this month’s summit in The Hague.

However, on the campaign trail, he moderated his stance, repeatedly calling the alliance with the U.S. a key pillar of Korean diplomacy. Despite that, he also called for “pragmatic diplomacy” with China, North Korea and Russia. 

Lee has signaled readiness to resume economic cooperation with Russia, which could make him susceptible to “bullying” from Moscow, said Alexander Lipke, Asia program coordinator at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a pan-European think tank.

But given South Korea’s decades-old alliance with the U.S. and its reliance on the Pentagon for security guarantees against its belligerent northern neighbor, Seoul will ultimately continue to take cues from Washington in its engagement with Europe and Ukraine, said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London.

Lethal aid to Ukraine is off the table — at least until a ceasefire is reached — but other cooperation is not. Lee, for example, expressed an interest in contributing to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, hoping South Korean companies can benefit from potential investment. 

To work with South Korea, however, Europe may now need to look past Lee’s rhetoric, and match his “more pragmatic, more interest-based style,” Lipke said. 

Lipke explained that would open the possibility of Europe harnessing Seoul’s booming defense industry to boost its own military preparedness.