PARIS — Anti-immigration MEP Sarah Knafo of the Reconquest party is set to advance to the second round of the Paris mayoral election in what would be a historic first for a far-right candidate, according to new polling shared with POLITICO.
The survey from Cluster17, a prominent French pollster, shows Knafo, who formally entered the race in January, winning 10 percent of the vote in the municipal election next month.
The data suggests her campaign is building traction — a surprise in a city where the far right has always struggled — as she was on course to win only 6 percent in December.
Reconquest is the party founded by Knafo’s partner, maverick far-right politician and commentator Ériz Zemmour, who came fourth in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.
Candidates who meet the 10 percent support threshold in the first round on March 15 advance to the runoff and earn representation on the city council. As it stands, that would see an unprecedented five-way race in the second round on March 22.
Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire leads the race with 33 percent of the vote, according to the poll. He’s followed by Rachida Dati, the conservative culture minister, at 26 percent. Centrist Pierre-Yves Bournazel scored 14 percent, while Sophia Chikirou of the hard-left France Unbowed drew 12 percent.
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Knafo’s platform includes several radical proposals such as halving the number of public workers in Paris and rowing back on some of current Mayor Anne Hidalgo’s signature policies, including reducing the speed limit on the Paris ring road. Hidalgo also banished cars from the banks of the Seine River, but Knafo wants instead to build a two-story passageway on the banks, with cars traveling underground and pedestrians above.
Grégoire and Dati are clear front-runners in the race, but both have incentives to forge an alliance with candidates on their political extremes between the first and second rounds.
Jean-Yves Dormagen, president and founder of Cluster17, warned that Dati is “caught in a pincer movement” between Knafo to her right and Bournazel in the center.
“Dati doesn’t have a good campaign dynamic,” Dormagen said.
Despite Grégoire facing a similar risk of being outflanked by Chikirou to his left, the Socialist candidate’s strong polling with voters from multicultural backgrounds — a “decisive group” in Paris — gives him a boost, the pollster said.
“It’s a real problem for Sophia Chikirou,” said Dormagen.
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