PARIS — France’s presidential election may still be more than 14 months away, but the campaign is already well under way.

Traditionally, French campaigns don’t get going until after the August holidays of the year before, but the stakes for the 2027 contest are so high — given the potential victory of a far-right president skeptical of the European Union and NATO — that the race is now on.

Almost every policy agenda in France, from the environment to business regulation, is now being viewed through the lens of the next presidential election, in which the centrist Emmanuel Macron will be unable to stand.

Take last week’s World Impact Summit in Paris. Ostensibly a discussion about Europe’s green transition, it turned into a forum for far higher-level political maneuvers. Presidential hopefuls Marine Tondelier of the Greens, Jordan Bardella of the far-right National Rally, centrist Gabriel Attal and the center-left’s Raphaël Glucksmann all used the sustainability debate on stage to lay out rival visions for the nation and the Elysée.

“We need to prepare the future,” former Prime Minister Attal said. “The country faces a crucial moment of truth in 2027, important for France and Europe.”

The influential business lobby Medef is also moving early to make its voice heard in the campaign, and is arranging lunches for captains of industry with would-be candidates such as Bardella, Attal and Socialist leader Olivier Faure.

Crucially, political parties are treating next month’s municipal elections as a dress rehearsal for the presidential contest. The far-right National Rally is hoping to cement its status as France’s predominant political force, while the left and center are gunning to prove they’re still relevant.

“It is going to be a very long campaign,” said OpinionWay pollster Bruno Jeanbart.

A new political landscape

Being first out of the gate in French elections isn’t necessarily an advantage — as discovered by former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who confirmed his candidacy months ago and was initially seen as a front-runner. He’s now lagging in the polls.

Liberal former Prime Minister François Bayrou, whose presidential aspirations are an open secret, has long said all that matters for candidates is that they’re in the discussion the Christmas before the election “at the earliest.”

And France’s strict campaign finance laws mean there’s no need to fundraise early to accumulate a massive war chest.

But the prospect of a far-right French president has sent the mainstream political establishment scrambling for a champion to take on Bardella or the National Rally’s preferred standard-bearer, Marine Le Pen, who is appealing an embezzlement conviction that has knocked her out of the contest.

There isn’t an obvious mainstream candidate to lead the pack given how Macron’s 2017 election laid waste to France’s traditional left-right landscape. The political center has splintered, with a hodgepodge of candidates racing to fill Macron’s shoes.

Justice Minister Gerald Darmanin warned against having too many candidates, particularly Philippe and Attal on the center right.

“Competition is normal and legitimate,” he told the broadcaster RTL last week. “But if there’s more than one candidate, it’s possible that they won’t both reach the run-off. We urgently need to agree.”

Lesser-known politicians such as Socialist lawmaker Jérôme Guedj, who joined the fray last week, are starting early in the hope of using the extra time to build a brand with voters.

Guedj joins Philippe and Tondelier, the leader of the Greens, as already confirmed candidates. Others have been more coy about 2027 but appear to be gearing up for a run: They include former Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, leader of the center-right Les Républicains Bruno Retailleau, and the conservative head of the Hauts-de-France region Xavier Bertrand.

Medef, the business lobby, said it was bringing forward the launch of its candidate lunches to adjust to this new reality.

“The earlier we engage with them, the greater chance we have of influencing their positions,” said a Medef board member who, like others quoted in this story, was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Survival of the fittest

Most political observers say the field of candidates is getting too large. Few agree on how to narrow it down.

Parts of the political left and right are considering primaries even before the two-round race, but not all are buying into the idea — particularly those who have marginal leads and might lose their advantage to lesser-known candidates.

Others argue for a Darwinian approach, letting the massive field duke it out on the campaign trail.

“I’m convinced we need to agree on a candidate as late as possible,” said a former centrist minister. “It’s an extraordinary election, the campaign can’t be business as usual.”

The week in between the two rounds of next month’s municipal election will offer vital clues going forward, as French political parties will be forced in certain contests to form alliances of convenience if they wish to block ideological opponents from victory.

“Local elections are determined by local issues so we can’t project the result onto the national level,” said the pollster Jeanbart. “But it will tell us how the parties relate to each other.”