BRUSSELS — Ukraine will need Western troops to enforce any ceasefire with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, but voters in Europe’s two most powerful economies are deeply reluctant to help.
People in France and Germany would rather put a peace deal at risk than commit their military personnel to safeguarding a truce, according to new results from The POLITICO Poll.
The findings, from independent pollster Public First’s survey of more than 10,000 people in the U.S., Canada, the U.K., France and Germany, are a political problem for French President Emmanuel Macron, who has already promised to deploy troops inside Ukraine once the war ends.
They also call into question the viability of any future peace deal given the U.S.’s waning interest in Ukraine and European security as America shifts attention and resources to its own hemisphere as well as the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.
The polling comes just days before the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As politicians from around the world gather to discuss defense priorities at the annual Munich Security Conference, there is no indication that a peace agreement is close.
In recent months, European and U.S. officials have agreed an outline deal that would include a Western military presence inside Ukraine to secure the peace, backed by American support.
But repeated rounds of negotiations have so far failed to bring Russia on board. The big fear in Ukraine — and across much of Europe — is that a lopsided peace agreement that favors Moscow, or one without robust security guarantees, will merely encourage Putin to attack again in future.
“At the start of last year the question was clearly whether the U.S. could be depended upon for supporting peace in Ukraine, but this poll indicates that now the same could be asked of the two biggest economies in Europe,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First. “The pledges they make may well be in opposition to the view of the voters they represent.”
According to the poll, only in Canada and the U.K. are more voters willing to send troops to Ukraine to secure the peace than oppose the idea.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said that a multinational peacekeeping force would be “vital” in guaranteeing Ukraine’s security.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has promised his country’s support for Ukraine following any peace agreement, but it remains unclear whether Canada would deploy troops.
Respondents in the U.S., Germany and France are more likely than not to prefer keeping their militaries out of Ukraine, “even if that means risking peace in the region.”
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Germany and France are the most strongly opposed to deployments, with more than half of those in Germany — 53 percent — saying No to sending peacekeeping troops. In France, 43 percent said the country should not put troops in Ukraine, compared to 33 percent in support.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said Germany would be open to sending troops, saying “nothing should be ruled out” in the event of a peace agreement, but any deployment would have to be approved by the German parliament.
In the U.S., 43 percent of respondents think American troops should be kept out of Ukraine, regardless of the potential negative impact on regional peace, while 37 percent were in favor of sending peacekeepers. U.S. President Donald Trump has said no American troops will be sent to Ukraine.
Russia strongly opposes any NATO troops being sent to Ukraine.
“We will respond to any hostile steps, including the deployment of European troops to Ukraine,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told the Russian parliament in December.
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