BRUSSELS — The outline of a trade deal between the EU and the U.S. is taking shape. It would contain a baseline 10 percent U.S. tariff, relief for specific industries and an “up-front” U.S. commitment to tariff relief, four diplomats told POLITICO.

A first nonbinding, political deal can be done before a July 8 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to do a deal or face 50 percent “reciprocal” tariffs. But there are still many details to iron out in the few days that remain, the diplomats said after being briefed on Monday by top European Commission officials Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand.

Even if such an “agreement in principle” is locked in, many details and disagreements are expected to remain unresolved beyond the deadline.

Brussels is pushing to secure a U.S. commitment to “up-front” tariff relief at the time of the agreement in principle, according to the diplomats. This would resemble a deal already struck by the U.K. with Washington, which offered tariff exemptions on auto and steel exports while talks on a comprehensive deal continue. A number of EU countries told the Commission no deal of any kind would be possible without such relief.

In other words: the U.S. will need to budge if the EU is to accept a 10 percent baseline.

EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is flying to Washington for a crunch round of talks on Thursday with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. He is due to brief EU countries on their outcome on Friday.

In this potentially decisive round, Šefčovič is expected to signal that the EU still hopes to reduce the 10 baseline tariff that Trump imposed on most U.S. trading partners in April. However, under certain conditions, the bloc will say it could accept the 10 percent, according to the diplomats, who were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the closed-door talks.

Second, the EU is pushing for lower rates for key sectors, such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, alcohol and commercial aircraft — as sought by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The Commission, however, “sees the chance for this happening as quite small,” one of the diplomats said.

Additionally, Brussels still hopes to bargain down Washington’s tariffs of 25 percent on cars and 50 percent on steel and aluminum. According to another diplomat, concessions on steel are most likely, while the first diplomat quoted above said the idea would be to “create a ring of protection” around the EU and the U.S. against Chinese overproduction.

Four scenarios

The EU is considering four scenarios in its dealings with the U.S., two of the diplomats shared. 

Of the four, the worst is a complete breakdown in talks, leading the U.S. to hike its baseline 10 percent tariff to 50 percent and slap additional tariffs on products like pharma and semiconductors. A slightly better situation would be to continue talking during the summer months, while existing tariffs remain in force. 

Concluding negotiations on a framework that encompasses the tariffs and cooperating on countering China’s industrial might would be the best, but even in that case the EU is realistic it will need to swallow some one-sided U.S. measures.

An agreement in principle would be the precursor to this, and such a deal might push potential EU retaliation — which is currently paused until July 14 — into the medium term. So far, EU member countries have backed a first round of retaliatory measures on paper but a second, far larger one, remains under consideration.

The diplomats increasingly consider a complete breakdown of talks to be unlikely, with several pointing out that talks are likely to continue should the two sides fail to reach an agreement by July 8. 

EU member countries are trying their best to display unity and back the EU executive’s goal of sealing a deal with Trump — despite not always seeing eye-to-eye on how to best deal with the White House. 

Berlin and Rome are among the most outspoken proponents of a fast deal, even if that means making greater concessions to Trump.

“Rome seems quite keen to maintain good relationships and willing to accept a lot,” one of the diplomats said. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni — a MAGA favorite — said last week that the 10 percent U.S. tariff is “not particularly impactful for us.”

Others, like Spain, have already experienced the repercussions of pushing hard against Trump. Last week, the U.S. President threatened new tariffs on Madrid after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez refused to increase defense spending in line with other NATO allies — even though that wouldn’t be feasible as the EU’s 27 members operate as a trade bloc.

Antonia Zimmermann and Koen Verhelst reported from Brussels, and Hans von der Burchard from Berlin. Camille Gijs contributed reporting. This story has been updated.