LONDON — As demonstrations of friendship go, it doesn’t get much more heavyweight than this.

The HMS Prince of Wales — a Queen Elizabeth class aircraft carrier weighing 65,000 tonnes — docked in Darwin, Australia this week ahead of a meeting between the foreign and defense ministers of Britain and Australia.

This display of military pomp has a clear purpose, as Britain and Australia seek to demonstrate their wholehearted commitment to the AUKUS program, a trilateral initiative with the U.S. aimed at warding off China’s growing influence.

Under a multibillion-dollar deal agreed between the three countries in 2021, they will jointly develop nuclear-powered submarines and produce transformative new weapons.

But the partnership suffered a jolt when Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby, who has been critical of AUKUS in the past, launched a surprise review of the entire treaty this spring.

While the summit between British and Australian ministers is an annual occurrence, there is little doubt it is being used to reassure the U.S. at a particularly sensitive time.

An Australian diplomat, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said that “how to handle [the implications of the Colby review] will definitely be discussed.”

America first

The initiation of a U.S. review at first sparked fears for the future of AUKUS, since Colby has expressed skepticism about the program’s worth. 

However, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said at a press appearance with Donald Trump at the recent G7 in Canada that “we’re proceeding with” AUKUS — with the U.S. president in agreement.

Adam Kozloski, a senior fellow at the U.S.-based Atlantic Council think tank, said that while reports of the partnership’s demise had been exaggerated, there was nonetheless a clear shift in priorities for Washington. 

“Every initiative that the Trump administration inherited is being looked at in terms of making sure it fits the ‘America first’ approach which they advocate,” he said.

Since taking office, Trump has turned America’s gaze firmly away from Europe towards the Indo-Pacific, and he now wants to know what meaningful difference his AUKUS partners can make in that effort.

The long trip by U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey and Foreign Secretary David Lammy therefore seems at least partly designed to underscore their willingness to step up, and comes directly before an expected meeting between Trump and Starmer.

In remarks released ahead of the visit, Healey said: “AUKUS is one of Britain’s most important defense partnerships, strengthening global security while driving growth at home.”

On maneuvers

The two countries will sign a new bilateral treaty underpinning their respective submarine programs, while the British Army’s Carrier Strike Group will take part in the largest military exercise Australia has ever hosted, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense.

The U.K. and Australia will also seek to demonstrate progress on “Pillar II” of AUKUS, which commits the allies to collaboration on advanced capabilities such as long-range hypersonic missiles, undersea robotics and AI.

Sophia Gaston, senior research fellow at King’s College London, said Britain and Australia were “working closely together on demonstrating how AUKUS delivers tangible value” which “means moving at a faster and more ambitious pace on delivery, particularly on Pillar II.”

The only catch is that this element of the deal appears to be one that Colby is less bothered about.

The review, which is ongoing, is focused on the plan for the U.S. to sell three nuclear-powered Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s before their own AUKUS subs arrive in the 2040s.

Colby is mostly concerned about how Australia will actually use those submarines — which will be taken out of the U.S. fleet — and how they will support U.S. interests, particularly with regard to the defense of Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, according to one person briefed on the review who requested anonymity to discuss the matter.

Colby is less concerned over some of the joint technological development programs that make up Pillar II of the agreement, the same person said. 

Despite the elaborate display of military prowess by the U.K., London will be hard-pressed to convince Washington that it is capable of deploying the type of hard power which the U.S. is really seeking in the region. 

“How likely is it that these forces are going to be in the region and capable of assisting if something were actually to go down with Taiwan or the South China Sea?” asked Kozloski, who pointed out that it had taken months of planning to get U.K. forces to Australian shores.

On the Australian side, the U.S. has reportedly asked Canberra to set out how they would react if the U.S. and China went to war over Taiwan — prompting Defense Industry Minister Pat Conroy to state that they would not commit troops in advance.

Against this backdrop, the epic journey made by HMS Prince of Wales begins to look like the easy bit.

Luke McGee contributed to this report.