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Budget 2025: Household confidence slumps as uncertainty over tax rises fuels financial anxiety

British households’ financial confidence has fallen to its lowest point in four months, according to new data showing increasing anxiety over personal finances.

The decline comes amid widespread speculation about possible tax changes in the upcoming Budget.

S&P Global’s consumer sentiment tracker for the UK recorded a marked deterioration in November.

It marked the weakest reading since March.

The index, which assesses household concerns around finances, spending, saving and perceptions of the jobs market, registered at 45.2.

Any reading below 50 indicates worsening sentiment.

The latest figures reflect rising concern among families across the UK.

Speculation surrounding tax measures were identified as a key factor contributing to the unease.

Rachel Reeves

Government messaging on potential fiscal adjustments has added to the sense of uncertainty.

Analysts said this has left many households unsure about their financial outlook heading into winter.

The household finance metric showed a particularly sharp decline.

It fell from October’s reading of 47.5 to 43.4 in November, sitting well below the neutral level of 50.

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Man looking worried

This marks the lowest point since March.

The decline highlights the scale of concern among households about disposable income and day-to-day costs.

Private sector workers saw a reversal in income trends during the month.

S&P Global researchers reported an income contraction after several months of positive gains throughout 2025.

The fall ended a sustained period of wage growth for private sector employees.

Researchers said the shift reflected employers becoming more cautious in response to economic uncertainty. Public sector workers experienced a different trend.

The survey indicated wage increases once government employees were factored in. The figures show a widening gap between income trends across public and private sectors.

This divergence illustrates how current economic pressures are affecting workers differently depending on their employer.

Maryam Baluch, an economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the weakening outlook was linked to a “steepening fall in disposable incomes, pointing to reduced spending across all income tiers”.

She said the deterioration was affecting consumers regardless of their earnings level.

“As we approach the Autumn Budget, a sense of unease permeates across UK households, who are keenly awaiting the Chancellor’s forthcoming decisions,” Ms Baluch said. “Many households are grappling with uncertainty regarding potential changes in taxation, public spending, and economic forecasts that could significantly impact their financial wellbeing”.

Her comments highlight the link between pre-Budget speculation and falling sentiment. Families remain concerned about how upcoming policy decisions may influence their finances.

Financial analysts at Shore Capital issued a critical assessment of the Government’s economic management.

Clive Black, a research analyst at the firm, said there was “no point speculating as to what will be in the 2025 Budget because it appears that just days out the Chancellor does not have a clue either”.

Mr Black also expressed concerns about how uncertainty could influence the UK’s international reputation. He said it risked damaging perceptions of Britain among global investors.

The analyst said overseas partners were closely watching political developments. He warned that instability could affect confidence in the UK’s economic direction.

Household and Martin Lewis

The survey results were published as households continue to face cost pressures across essential spending categories.

S&P Global said the data suggests a cautious period ahead for consumers.

The latest figures provide a snapshot of household attitudes heading into the Budget period.

They indicate that financial confidence remains fragile as families await details of the Government’s fiscal plans.

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