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Reform predicted to make ‘huge inroads on Labour heartlands’ as James Orr teases ‘more defections’ ahead of May election

James Orr has teased that Reform UK will see “more” defections to their party ahead of the May elections.

Speaking to GB News, Nigel Farage’s Senior Advisor predicted that the party will make “huge inroads” on Labour heartlands as voters head to the ballot box in three months’ time.

Ahead of May’s election, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage unveiled his party’s new Welsh leader, Dan Thomas.

The Welsh-born ex-Tory addressed the crowd ahead of the Senedd elections, declaring he has “come back to where I belong”.

Highlighting why Reform UK’s success will be so important in Wales, Mr Orr told GB News: “Well, it’s significant for Reform because the story has been for so long that Reform is a pro-England party and it’s a one-issue party just focusing on immigration.

“But it’s now very clear, the success in Caerphilly shows that we are able to make huge, huge inroads into Labour heartlands.”

Noting how “extraordinary” the political landscape is becoming in England, Scotland and Wales, he added: “The media narrative was ‘Reform fell at the last hurdle, let Plaid in, the tactical voting’ – in fact, our internal polling suggests that if there was any tactical voting, it was going for Plaid as the ‘Stop Starmer party’ over us.

“But it’s still quite extraordinary what we’re seeing here in the history of British politics, not just in Wales, but of course in Scotland.”

James Orr

Predicting that Reform will secure between “20 to 23 seats” in Holyrood, Mr Orr made clear how Scotland had once been “baron territory for the right”.

He explained: “It looks as if, on current polling, we’re going to get between 20 and 23 seats in Holyrood and we’ll be a firm second, and I think we’re going to edge out Labour.

“This is simply extraordinary because no other party has never, never been able to get those sorts of numbers in Scotland in living memory.

“So too in Wales and in and so too up in parts of the North, more Labour heartlands where it looks like we’re being extremely competitive and effectively the Conservatives and the Unionist Party has ceased to be a party of the union. I think that’s going to be very, very clear after May 7, and I think what we’re seeing is quite remarkable.”

Dismantling claims that Reform UK is becoming a “retirement home for Tories”, Mr Farage’s advisor told GB News: “I think it also gives the lie to this idea that all these Tory defectors are turning us into the Tories 2.0, the sort of retirement home for the Tories line.

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Nigel Farage, Dan Thomas

“If that were the case, we wouldn’t be going from two per cent in Keir Hardie’s old constituency to 36 per cent. We would not be as competitive as we are in Labour heartlands up north, and we would not be as competitive as we are being in Scotland.”

Pressed by host Miriam Cates on how Reform will approach the elections in England and their battle with Kemi Badenoch’s Tories, Mr Orr said: “I’d say that after a slightly shaky December, we’ve gone back up to the high 20s, low 30s. The Tories at some polls put them on 20 per cent, but as we know with first past the post, there are tipping points.

“And right now, I would say the Tory party in the high teens is at extinction level, it’s at double digits in terms of seats. And so, I think there’s still at the moment at a very long time to wait, and it may be that an election is called a bit sooner than that, but I think we’re opening up a very, very big margin on the Conservative Party.

“And I think, you know, my sense is there’s three, four or five points still in the Tory vote, Conservative voters who are looking at us very closely, and I think will be inspired to vote for us as they start to see real electoral success in early May, and as they start to see a really strong top team emerging around Nigel Farage.”

James Orr

Admitting that Reform will “not be free of human challenges” if they are elected into Government, Mr Orr said: “We’ve got three or four years still to prepare ahead of 2029, it might be sooner than that, but we are working incredibly hard.

“We’re facing probably one of the biggest personnel challenges that any political party has faced in history.

“That’s immensely exciting, because one of the great things about starting an entirely new political movement is that you’re free from a lot of the kind of backbiting and caucuses and factionalism that is affecting and undermining the existing parties.”

Teasing more defections to the party before the May elections, he concluded: “We’re taking on people with significant ministerial experience now in Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, Danny Kruger we’ve got Nadhim Zahawi and so on.

“And I think we’ll be seeing more, I hope, before the transfer window closes on May 7.”

LP Staff Writers

Writers at Lord’s Press come from a range of professional backgrounds, including history, diplomacy, heraldry, and public administration. Many publish anonymously or under initials—a practice that reflects the publication’s long-standing emphasis on discretion and editorial objectivity. While they bring expertise in European nobility, protocol, and archival research, their role is not to opine, but to document. Their focus remains on accuracy, historical integrity, and the preservation of events and individuals whose significance might otherwise go unrecorded.

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