Donald Trump’s former national security adviser has claimed Ireland has lost the support of the United States and warned the United Kingdom could be next.

Former US National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien wrote in a foreword to a report from Policy Exchange titled ‘Peak Ireland? Ireland’s Diplomatic Challenges and the Lessons for the UK” which warned that the Republic of Ireland once had a privileged standing with America.

However, that relationship is facing an unprecedented strain, and the UK Government must learn from those lessons, according to the report.

Mr O’Brien wrote that “the Trump Administration and the American people expect better burden sharing from our allies and partners”.

“Much of Europe is stepping up, but Ireland contributes almost nothing to the defence of the Atlantic and European regions from which it benefits so much,” he added.

Policy Exchange has warned that Ireland is “free-loading” on defence, foreign policy and tax, given it spends 0.2 per cent of GDP on defence.

It is less than any other European state.

After the UK Government’s separation from Washington on recognising a Palestinian state and against the backdrop of prolonged hedging amid the Sino-American competition, the deterioration of Ireland and America’s relationship provides a warning for Britain.

The report states the UK cannot repeat the mistakes of the Irish model.

“Instead, Britain must seek closer alignment on core American interests across trade, defence and foreign policy,” it added.

The report’s author, Harry Halem, a Senior Research Fellow in the National Security Unit at Policy Exchange, wrote that the “British Government may regard gestures such as recognising Palestinian statehood, handing over Chagos and a lenient stance toward China as cost-free”.

“The example of Ireland, however, demonstrates that these divergencies from the President’s explicit priorities will apply an unsustainable strain to the UK’s relationship with the US,” Mr Halem added.

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“If the UK is to survive in this new era of conditional diplomacy, the Prime Minister must heed the warning of Peak Ireland as its economy unravels and its influence in Washington wanes.”

Policy Exchange revealed that Ireland had used its “exceptionally low corporate tax rates to attract US businesses, with 10 American multinationals accounting for 60 per cent of Irish corporate tax revenue”.

“This has rendered Ireland vulnerable to the Trump Administration’s attempts to reshore US businesses,” the report stated.

It also revealed that Ireland’s defence spending undermined “its ability to safeguard vital undersea infrastructure and confront subversive adversaries using Ireland as a launchpad for European operations”.

“As the US seeks a security self-sufficient Europe while containing Russia and China, Ireland is the weak link in Transatlantic security,” the report added.

“The dissatisfaction caused by minute defence spending has been exacerbated by the wider strategic misalignment between Dublin and Washington, particularly on Israel.

“The anti-Zionism prevalent at all levels of Irish politics has worsened the already notable strategic misalignment between the US and Ireland.”

Policy Exchange has recommended that the UK must “acknowledge and adapt to the sharpening conditionality of close relations with the US”.

“Single disagreements can rupture traditionally close relations, and the UK cannot depend, as Ireland has, on deep historical and cultural ties to mitigate misalignment,” the report recommended.

“Increased scrutiny in the White House and on Capitol Hill on partners’ stances demands closer alignment.

“The overwhelmingly negative bipartisan response to Irish anti-Zionism exemplifies the growing scrutiny of partners’ actions and the domestic pressure on the President to respond to misalignment.”

The report comes in the wake of Independent Catherine Connolly being elected as Ireland’s President, who claimed the country “certainly cannot trust” the US, France and the UK.

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