LONDON — Donald Trump and Keir Starmer have become good at smiling and shaking hands, but Britain’s prime minister will be hoping for more than that this week.

Serious policy questions will be bubbling just under the sheen of royal pomp when the U.S. president touches down Tuesday for his unprecedented second state visit. Trump will meet Starmer at Chequers — the PM’s residence in rural England — for talks and a press conference Thursday after a day of pageantry with King Charles III.

Downing Street wants to focus on a tech partnership, nuclear energy, financial services and soft power. Starmer’s spokesperson said the “unbreakable friendship” between the two nations “will reach new heights.” (The reference to Travis Kelce’s sports podcast was accidental.) No. 10 even pledged to ensure grassroots access to basketball ahead of the visit, though the details of this were hazy Monday.

But other areas are far trickier. Tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum remain at 25 percent, despite both sides signing a “landmark economic deal” in May. The future for Ukraine looks unclear a month after European leaders, including Starmer, met with Trump in the Oval Office. Starmer is close to recognizing a Palestinian state, deepening a gulf between Britain’s policy and that of the U.S.

U.K. officials will want the visit to run like clockwork — a U.K. delegation was in the U.S. Monday to finalize preparations — but Trump is unpredictable. After Charlie Kirk’s murder, he could be asked about free speech in Britain. He will doubtless be asked his opinion on the sacking of U.K. ambassador Peter Mandelson over his friendship with disgraced Jeffrey Epstein. And he could choose to opine on a mass protest in London on Saturday that was led by far-right activist Tommy Robinson, where Trump’s former ally Elon Musk called on attendees to “fight back or you die.”

Before we get to all that … POLITICO has done a quick-fire round-up of what the U.K government still wants to get, and what it’s already got in the bank.

Ukraine

The visit gives Starmer a chance to re-up the importance of the conflict in Ukraine after Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace, a test for NATO.

While the U.S. shifted last month toward security guarantees — backing up European forces in a post-war Ukraine — those are yet to be fully fleshed out, and still depend on a ceasefire. One U.K. government figure said: “We can’t do it without a peace. That’s the inhibiting factor.”

British diplomacy has focused on attempting to persuade Trump that Putin is the main barrier to peace, and to apply more pressure in that direction. After Axios reported that Trump has told confidants that he misjudged Putin’s desire for peace, Starmer — and U.K. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, who is expected to meet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — may spy an opening. The meeting also comes days after Trump said he is ready to impose “major sanctions” on Moscow if NATO members stop purchasing Russian oil. 

But the picture remains uncertain. Starmer’s spokesperson said Monday: “The Coalition of the Willing is significantly advanced. It’s now up to President Putin to show he’s serious and come to the table.”

Starmer, however, has a secret weapon absent from most global meetings. Charles has previously made visible shows of support for Volodymyr Zelenskyy at moments of jeopardy, and it would be surprising if he did not use this opportunity to advocate for Ukraine again. If he can’t keep Trump interested in securing peace in Europe, possibly no one can.

Big, beautiful rating: 2/5

Recognizing Palestine

Trump is arriving days before Starmer hits a self-imposed deadline to recognize a Palestinian state, if Israel fails to meet conditions such as agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza.

Starmer’s stance (which is broadly shared by French President Emmanuel Macron) was rebuked by Trump in July as “rewarding Hamas” and the U.S. and U.K. are unlikely to see eye to eye on this. A sign of success for Downing Street may simply be the lack of any outright condemnation, given Trump has previously said it is a matter for the U.K.

Starmer did, however, help nudge Trump toward acknowledging “real starvation” in Gaza on the president’s last visit to Britain, and hit out at Israel’s airstrike targeting Hamas negotiators in Qatar.

Big, beautiful rating: 2/5

Tech partnership

The two countries will sign a technology partnership, pledging to work together on areas such as AI, quantum and space. It will focus on research, procurement and skills, and was pitched by the U.K. Embassy in Washington as a way of beating China in the tech race. A U.K. government spokesperson said the pact would “change the lives” of Brits and Americans, while Mandelson called it his “personal pride and joy” — though he was sacked before it could be unveiled.

U.S. tech companies will also announce a host of investments in Britain starting Tuesday. The biggest is expected to come from NVIDIA and OpenAI, whose CEOs Jensen Huang and Sam Altman are in the U.K. for the state visit. They are expected to pour billions of dollars into building a data center campus near Blyth, Northumberland, on the site of a former coal power station, as part of the Stargate initiative. NVIDIA is also promising that its AI model will be able to “reason” in Welsh, a language spoken by around 850,000 people in Wales.

Big, beautiful rating: 4/5

Steel tariffs

The May trade agreement promised “rapid discussions” for new quotas on Britain’s steel and aluminum exports, allowing the White House to lower its 25 percent tariffs.

Yet while U.K. firms dodged Trump’s doubling of those duties to 50 percent in the spring, talks to implement these new quotas — and hence bring the tariff below 25 percent —  only restarted early this month after radio silence over the summer, two people close to the talks told POLITICO.

A key stumbling block remains U.S. rules, which require imported metals to be melted and poured in their country of origin to qualify for tariff relief. The U.K.’s largest exporter to the U.S. — Tata Steel UK’s Port Talbot steel mill — temporarily shut its blast furnaces last September as it switches to greener arc furnaces. In the meantime, the firm has been importing steel from its plants in India and the Netherlands. No. 10 said Monday it wants an “announcement as soon as possible,” but industry figures have been gloomy.

Big, beautiful rating: 2/5

Pharmaceuticals

Britain is also expected to press Washington for pharma guarantees. May’s trade pact left the door open for “preferential treatment” on future pharmaceutical tariffs, contingent on the outcome of a U.S. investigation. Trump even fanned expectations during his Turnberry golf trip in July, when he said the U.S. “certainly feel[s] a lot better” about the U.K. pharma industry than other nations.

But those benefits hinge on Britain’s endeavoring to “improve the overall environment” for pharma firms operating in the U.K. The industry is already in a row with the U.K. government over drug pricing in the National Health Service, and it has been a difficult month more broadly —  U.S. giant Merck ditched a £1 billion U.K. expansion plan, while AstraZeneca froze plans for a £200 million Cambridge research site.

Big, beautiful rating: 3/5.

Food, drink and agriculture

British farmers will be keen to avoid further casualties after the May deal granted U.K. market access to American beef and bioethanol. But with U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins expected to form part of Trump’s delegation, farmers may have to fight their corner. Back in May, she pushed for U.K. market access for U.S. dairy, rice, poultry, pork and shellfish.

Any concessions on this front would potentially have consequences for the U.K.’s newly rekindled relationship with the EU. The U.K. committed in May to sign up to European single-market regulation on animal and plant health, which could restrict its ability to grant access to more U.S. agricultural products.

Elsewhere, the U.K. has not given up hope of a tariff reduction for Scotch whisky, currently subject to a 10 percent rate.

Big, beautiful rating: 2/5

Financial services

The City of London has been less high-profile than talks focused on tech and nuclear, but the U.K. government did announce a £1.25 billion investment from U.S. financial institutions ahead of the visit. PayPal, Bank of America, Citibank, and S&P Global are among firms that will “support job creation, drive innovation, and deliver improved services for consumers in the UK,” according to a U.K. government press release, and the deals work both ways, with British banks pledging to expand their U.S. footprint.

U.K Business Secretary Peter Kyle used a Sunday media round to hint at more announcements “in the coming weeks,” and Starmer and Trump are both expected to deliver remarks at a business reception at Chequers hosted by Chancellor Rachel Reeves. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet his British counterparts on the visit too.

Big, beautiful rating: 4/5

Nuclear partnership

Downing Street wants to show the U.K. is leading the world on the transition to cleaner energy. The White House — with Trump’s pledge to drill, baby, drill for more high-polluting oil and gas and his habit of condemning “windmills” on British soil — has very different ideas.

So this week, the two sides have seized on the one bit of low-carbon energy where they can agree: nuclear. The U.K. unveiled a promise to cut red tape so nuclear power plants can be approved more quickly in both countries.

No. 10 also announced a series of U.K./U.S. nuclear power deals, including an agreement between U.S. firm X-Energy and British Gas owner Centrica to build advanced modular reactors in Hartlepool, and for Holtec, EDF UK and supply-chain experts Tritax to develop mini-reactors in Nottinghamshire, based on work first done in Michigan.

Big, beautiful rating: 3/5

And finally … moral support

As ever, aides will be hoping the “vibes” — not just the policy discussions — run in Starmer’s favor.

With the British PM facing domestic turmoil and whispered questions about his judgment and political future, a handshake and praise of his “beautiful accent” could help calm nerves from (some of) the PM’s own flock.

The British state will be laying the soft power on thick. Trump sat in wartime PM Winston Churchill’s chair the last time he went to Chequers, and military assets will be on show. We’ll see if it all puts the president in a good mood.

Big, beautiful rating: Who knows!