Undecided lawmakers in the European Parliament will make or break a deal to create the world’s largest free trade area, according to a POLITICO analysis of voting intentions.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa signed a long-awaited trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay amid fanfare last weekend.
The Mercosur trade agreement, 25 years in the making, covers 700 million people, and Brussels considers it a key strategic tool for the EU to strengthen trade ties with Latin America as relations with both the United States and China deteriorate.
But the mega-deal must still win the approval of the European Parliament before it can enter into force.
POLITICO reporters reached out to party groups and individual lawmakers and ascertained the voting intentions of 673 of the Parliament’s 719 MEPs. The findings put the deal at risk of running aground.
At least 301 of those lawmakers are expected to oppose the Mercosur deal if and when it lands in the Parliament, while 319 MEPs would support it.
It’s a tally that undecided and undeclared lawmakers could easily swing.
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
Critical test
It’s a pivotal moment for the trade agreement.
The Parliament isn’t due to vote on the deal itself for months, potentially not until May. But on Wednesday, lawmakers will decide whether to send the deal’s text for legal review to the EU’s court of justice.
The process would kick the can down the road by up to two years.
This vote is effectively a dry run of where the majority would stand on final approval. Many of the lawmakers who support the deal are expected to reject sending it to court.
However, that is not the case for some: The 12 German Green lawmakers, for example, are in favor of the deal but also support sending it to court to assess its legality — making Wednesday’s vote even tighter.
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
In the Council of the EU, the bloc’s intergovernmental branch, the agreement won a qualified majority despite the opposition of France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary. Belgium abstained; Italy only backed the deal after securing safeguards and funding commitments for its farmers.
A Parliament vote against the deal would deal a massive blow to Brussels and the pro-deal camp led by Germany.
“We must not let this opportunity go to waste,” Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said last week, calling on the European Parliament to back the deal. “We need not talk any further about European sovereignty or Europe’s ability to act if we do not succeed in bringing such free trade agreements to a positive conclusion.”
Internal rifts
Opposition in Parliament comes from different corners: Lawmakers from the far-right Patriots for Europe and Left groups are expected to vote against the deal.
Other political groups are divided. Even within the ranks of von der Leyen’s own European People’s Party, one-fifth of lawmakers are expected to vote against the Mercosur text.
!function(){“use strict”;window.addEventListener(“message”,(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data[“datawrapper-height”]){var e=document.querySelectorAll(“iframe”);for(var t in a.data[“datawrapper-height”])for(var r=0;r<e.length;r++)if(e[r].contentWindow===a.source){var i=a.data["datawrapper-height"][t]+"px";e[r].style.height=i}}}))}();
There are also rifts within the liberal Renew group and the Greens, while POLITICO’s analysis shows the trade deal dividing the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists down the middle.
A big question mark hangs over the Spanish delegation within the EPP. With their 22 lawmakers, they were earlier seen as one of the main promoters of the deal. But pressure from farmers opposed to Mercosur ahead of regional election races has cast doubt over whether they will stay in the pro-deal camp. Senior EPP officials are still counting on their support despite the last-minute wobbles.
Reporting by Hanne Cokelaere, Max Griera, Lucia Mackenzie, Camille Gijs, Bartosz Brzeziński, Carlo Martuscelli, Koen Verhelst, Gerardo Fortuna, Nette Nöstlinger, Pieter Haeck and Eliza Gkritski.
Follow