BERLIN — Germany’s military planners are warning that recent cyberattacks, sabotage and disinformation campaigns could be the opening salvo in a new war, according to a confidential government document seen by POLITICO.

That assessment is set out in the Operational Plan for Germany (OPLAN), a blueprint for how Berlin would organize the defense of German territory in a major NATO conflict.

The planning reflects a broader shift in Germany — which has assumed a central role in logistics and reinforcement planning for the alliance — as Russia has grown increasingly belligerent toward European NATO countries following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost four years ago.

The document states that hybrid measures “can fundamentally serve to prepare a military confrontation.” Rather than treating cyber operations or influence campaigns as background pressure, the plan places them directly within the logic of military escalation.

The assumption has concrete consequences for how Germany plans its role in a future conflict. The document frames Germany as an operational base and transit corridor for NATO troops that would come under pressure early, particularly because of its role as the alliance’s main hub for moving and sustaining forces.

The 24-page document is classified as a so-called light version of the plan, which aims to coordinate civilian and military actors to define Germany’s role as a transit hub for allied forces. 

In a conflict scenario, Germany would become “a prioritized target of conventional attacks with long-range weapon systems” directed against both military and civilian infrastructure, the document states.

OPLAN lays out a five-phase escalation model, ranging from early threat detection and deterrence to national defense, NATO collective defense and post-conflict recovery. The document notes that Germany is currently operating in the first phase, where it is focused on building a shared threat picture, coordinating across government, and preparing logistics and protection measures.

The plan also assigns a significantly expanded role to domestic military forces. Homeland security units are tasked with protecting critical infrastructure, securing troop movements across German territory, and supporting the maintenance of state functions while combat forces deploy elsewhere.

Civilian structures are treated as essential to military success, with transport networks, energy supply, health services and private contractors repeatedly cited as required enablers. The document states that “numerous tasks require civilian support,” without which the plan can’t be implemented.

In recent months, Germany and its allies have faced a stream of hybrid attacks that mirror the scenarios the planners describe in OPLAN.

Federal authorities have documented rising Russian espionage, cyberattacks and influence efforts targeting political institutions, critical infrastructure and public opinion, with Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt describing the country as a “daily target of hybrid warfare.”