LONDON — Keir Starmer’s road to survival is narrowing after his most punishing week in office to date — but he’s not giving up yet. 

The latest revelations about Peter Mandelson and his ties to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have turned a spotlight on Starmer’s decision to appoint him as U.S. ambassador last year.

The mood in the Labour Party, already soured by faltering poll ratings and repeated missteps at the top of government, has turned decisively against the leader. MPs have begun calling publicly for Starmer to sack Morgan McSweeney, his chief adviser and ally of Mandelson, while in private accepting their leader may also have to go.  

Even one of Starmer’s staunchest defenders — his biographer, Tom Baldwin — believes it’s going to be tough for the PM to battle on.

“It can be survivable — that’s not to say it will be. Politics is very uncertain and very febrile and anyone who says they’re sure they know what’s going to happen next is unwise,” Baldwin told POLITICO.

Baldwin added: “What can he do to make it more likely he survives? The short answer is there’s no magic bullet. There’s no ‘with one bound he was free’. The answer is very Starmerish. It’s getting his head down, trying to do the right thing, keep talking about the issues which matter to people in the country rather than obsess journalists in Westminster.”

That’s what he tried to do by pushing on with a speech on regenerating left-behind towns on Thursday morning. Later that night he invited a tranche of backbenchers to his country residence of Chequers. Over chili and rice bowls, he apologized to MPs and tried to turn the page on a brutal week.

Yet there are few good options ahead for Starmer, who entered Downing Street on a promise of “change.” The series of scandals engulfing his government ever since have left many feeling a perma-rot has set in.

For now, Starmer’s own dogged determination to push on is bolstered by the absence of a serious would-be challenger in the right place to launch a political coup.

The coming storm 

The most immediate task is how to deal with the now-promised release of files relating to Mandelson’s appointment, a move for transparency that could prove damaging for Starmer and his top team as well as the former envoy.

Managing this moment could put him on the front foot again, if handled with extreme caution and fortitude.  

One former aide who worked closely with Starmer, granted anonymity like others in this piece to speak candidly, said: “What is clear is the prime minister isn’t going to just give up. That’s not him. That’s not his nature… If he thinks he’s in the right position, he will hunker down.”

MPs are despairing that Starmer has been blaming Mandelson’s “lies” rather than wholeheartedly accepting his own judgement was in question. The same ex-aide quoted above said that when more information is made public, Starmer may finally have to say: “I made a mistake… it’s not just the vetting, I made a mistake, and I regret appointing him.”

A second senior Labour insider echoed this, saying Starmer was “at his best when he gets ahead of stuff” and “he needs something decisive to say when all the information comes out.”

After apologizing publicly to Epstein’s victims on Thursday, Starmer renewed his apology to MPs gathered at Chequers, according to two people present. It’s unlikely to be the last time he does so.

Downing Street did not offer comment on Starmer’s efforts this week, but referred POLITICO again to Starmer’s public apology.

Reshuffle at the back

One favorite strategy of embattled prime ministers is a reset of the backroom team — and on Friday night the possibility of high-profile exits at both political and official level over the weekend could not be ruled out.

Starmer has already made such a makeover while in government, but another clear-out is nonetheless being widely discussed as many Labour MPs focus their anger on McSweeney.

A cross-section of MPs have made appeals for a new approach at No.10, including newly elected MPs Simon Opher and Jo White, long-serving backbencher Karl Turner made clear to Times Radio and the pro-Burnham Mainstream group also called for a full aides reboot.

“I think everyone has accepted the backroom needs reshuffling,” said one senior Labour MP. “He’s totally defenseless when Morgan goes. It’s all terminal now.”

A Whitehall official who works with No.10 said Amy Richards, a former aide to Yvette Cooper who is now in Downing Street, was being discussed as a possible successor. Louise Casey, a peer and fixer who has led inquiries on grooming gangs and social care, is widely seen as a candidate for cabinet secretary, after reports of antagonism between No.10 and incumbent Chris Wormald.

This would help address what has long been called the “boys’ club” attitude in No.10.

Both the former aide and the insider suggested that sacking McSweeney remains a possibility, but likely only as an act of last resort. The powerful aide is the architect of Starmer’s 2024 election success, and the PM only bound himself tighter than ever to the chief of staff by calling him “essential” to his operation as they faced extreme pressure this week.

“It’s a high profile scalp. It probably buys you a bit of time,” the former adviser said. “But is it like cutting off your arms to save your legs? What does it in the long term get you? I’m not sure.”

Sacking the divisive McSweeney might give some succor to the Parliamentary Labour Party — but Starmer’s the one who’s truly responsible for the direction of the government.

“I am sick and tired of talking about Morgan McSweeney, I think Morgan McSweeney is sick and tired of talking about himself,” Baldwin said. “In the end, the character of a government cannot be defined by an adviser, it has to be defined by a prime minister.”

Baldwin added: “It’s fair to say the PM has subcontracted too much of own politics and his own quite good political instincts, to various advisers and various occasions. He needs to reassert them. He needs to show the values that run through him and should run through the government.”

Reshuffle at the front

One of the “big bang” approaches being discussed by aides in Westminster as a survival mechanism for after what are forecast to be downright dire mid-term elections in May is a Cabinet reshuffle. 

One close ally of the PM accepted there was a case for some changes — such as bringing back Angela Rayner, who quit last autumn as deputy prime minister over controversy surrounding her tax affairs but remains one of the most popular figures within the Labour movement.

It would have the added benefit of “binding in” the potential leadership challenger to the Cabinet, as the senior insider quoted above said. 

Which position she could be offered is less clear, considering returning as housing secretary is surely off the cards given her fall from grace related to a housing tax. Chancellor? Forget it. But the close ally suggested culture secretary would be the obvious pick. 

Still, her Cabinet return and possible leadership bids are both being delayed by the HMRC still not having made a ruling on her tax affairs.

But reshuffles also present risks for a prime minister — particularly for one whose authority is so badly diminished.

“He’s not in any position to do a Cabinet reshuffle — he’s not strong enough,” said the senior insider. “Ed Miliband (the energy secretary) told him where to go last time around and he (Starmer) was in a stronger position then than he is now. And Cabinet reshuffles always cause more problems than they solve.”

Some MPs would like to see the unpopular chancellor Rachel Reeves moved away from the Treasury for a true fresh start. That would be particularly perilous considering how tightly Starmer has entwined their fortunes by outsourcing the government’s financial vision to her.

“History would suggest that prime ministers who sack their chancellors don’t last very long,” the insider pointed out.

The alternative is that Reeves could go of her own accord. The Sunday Times reported that people who’ve met her in recent weeks have described her as “frustrated and exhausted,” as the project run by herself and Starmer is firmly out of favor with MPs. A key ally of Reeves’ described the portrayal as “utter bollocks.”

There is a chance Starmer’s hand might be forced, however. There are deep fears across Whitehall that the promised disclosures of messages to and from Mandelson will uncover politically poisonous remarks.

Those close to Mandelson who will be most wary of their exchanges being revealed will include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Business Secretary Peter Kyle, as well as McSweeney. There could be other sources of embarrassment, considering the Epstein files revealed suggestions that then-PM Gordon Brown had been nicknamed “smelly.”

Of Mandelson, the Labour insider notes, “It strikes me that a man of his vintage doesn’t change his habits very often.”

If there’s a sliver of good news for the PM, then Baldwin reckoned that the Mandelson fiasco has also “made it harder to find a suitable replacement.”

“Some say the great sin is being too close and too trusting of Peter Mandelson. For them it would be strange to replace him with Wes Streeting who has been such a close friend of Mandelson,” Baldwin said.

“If you’re saying the issue is about propriety in public life it’s quite hard to go for Angela Rayner just five months after she was forced out as deputy prime minister over an unpaid tax bill. 

“That’s not to have a go at either of them, because they’re both good people. But the very nature of this particular controversy has made it harder for two most likely successors to press the button now and go for it.”

Still, the despairing former aide had another idea for dealing with the famously dilapidated parliament in the same week an official report found it could cost £40 billion to refurbish.

“Has anyone just thought about burning the building down?” they joked.

Bethany Dawson contributed to this report.