Reform UK is on track to smash Labour’s Red Wall, with exclusive GB News polling handing Nigel Farage a five-point lead over Sir Keir Starmer among Red Wall voters.

The result is consistent with previous projections that suggest the insurgent party could exceed Boris Johnson’s historic wipeout in 2019.

Managing expectations

Reform will be buoyed by the polls, but they might be exaggerating the impact of the Red Wall on the party’s electoral prospects, reckons elections guru John Curtice.

“The so-called Red Wall vote that Labour has – and they’ve got some – Reform has probably already milked it,” Curtice told Times Radio on Wednesday.

The guru explained that one of the main things Labour failed to do between 2019 and 2024 was “increase support amongst those who voted Leave”.

Those leave voters who ditched the party in 2019 did not return on July 4 last year but migrated to other parties, he explains, adding that this fragmentation explains why political pundits described Starmer’s landslide as “loveless”.

Meanwhile, an overwhelming majority (80 per cent) of those who say they would like to rejoin the bloc voted for Starmer last year.

This suggests that the Red Wall leave base has its limits and Reform could be at its “peak”, so the party must adjust its messaging accordingly, Curtice says.

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They are still operating in a “niche market”, Curtice previously tells GB News.

Polling highlights the dangers of becoming a single-issue party.

For example, Reform’s strongest pull is its stance on immigration. A recent Opinium poll for The Observer noted that 72 per cent of voters cited immigration as their most important issue.

However, a separate Ipsos poll from January noted several Tory voters are unhappy with the party’s stance on immigration but would still vote for them based on other issues like the NHS or the economy.

Therefore, if the main parties address this wedge issue, Reform could lose support.

Farage’s party are clearly aware of this. Reform has signalled they would expand the welfare state by scrapping the two-child benefit and restoring the winter fuel allowance in a bid to outflank Labour.

Starmer has signalled that he sees Reform’s popularity as a real threat, feeling it necessary to slam the party’s economic proposals as “Liz Truss all over again”.

Labour has come under further pressure through the speculated return of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Johnson secured first-rate support from just 12 per cent of Red Wall voters, putting him 15 points behind the Reform UK leader on 27 per cent.