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Nigel Farage eyes red wall wipeout after Reform steals ‘bellwether’ seat from Labour in historic win

Reform UK has bagged another by-election win that could pave the way for greater gains in Labour’s heartland.

Reform snatched victory from Labour in a Sunderland by-election this week in a dramatic swing, taking home 45.2 per cent of the vote.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party, meanwhile, slipped to third place in the Hetton ward by-election, with a share of just 22.7 per cent of votes, falling behind an independent candidate with 25.6 per cent.

The results will likely serve as a blow to Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, whose Houghton and Sunderland South constituency encompasses the Hetton ward.

Why the win is so significant 

The seat is regarded as a ‘bellwether’ ahead of Sunderland City Council’s May elections.

Bellwether seats are constituencies where the local result tracks a wider voting trend.

Reacting to the by-election results, GB News’ deputy political editor, Tom Harwood, said: “I spoke to the candidate in this by-election on Wednesday.

“Sunderland goes to vote in May, and Reform were looking to the Hetton by-election for clues in terms of how that might go.

“Looks likely to be another Durham moment.”

Bridget Phillipson and Nigel Farage

Mr Farage said it was a “huge result” for his party.

“Labour pushed into third place. Bridget Phillipson would lose her seat if this was repeated at the next election,” the Clacton MP wrote to X.

“No wonder Keir Starmer can’t stop attacking me!”

Hetton, Sunderland 

As set out in our analysis above, Reform stormed to victory in the Education Secretary’s consistency, with candidate Ian McKinley elected.

Reacting to his win, Mr McKinley said: “From the bottom of my heart, thank you to the residents of Hetton ward for putting your faith in me to represent you on Sunderland City Council.

“I will absolutely not let you down!Thank you also to my Reform colleagues, I will never forget all you have done for me, and I look forward to working with you all in May.”

The full results:

  • Reform: 45.2 per cent
  • Independent: 25.6 per cent
  • Labour: 22.7 per cent
  • Lib Dem: 4.2 per cent
  • Conservative: 2.3 per cent

Ian McKinley

Good things come in twos

Reform marked a second by-election victory in the Hunstanton ward on King’s Lynn and West Norfolk council, filling a previously independent-held seat.

The election had been called following the resignation of long-time councillor Paul Beal due to ill health last month.

Reform candidate Fred Pidcock bagged 29.2 per cent of votes, followed by the Lib Dems with 25.6 per cent.

Labour, meanwhile, plummeted to last place, with 3.2 per cent.

The full results:

  • Reform: 29.2 per cent
  • Lib Dems: 25.6 per cent
  • Independent: 18.2 per cent
  • Conservative: 17.8 per cent
  • Independent: 6.1 per cent
  • Labour: 3.2 per cent

Fred Pidcock

Barnoldswick, Lancashire 

It was a Lib Dem hold in the Barnoldswick ward on Pendle Council in east Lancashire.

Sir Ed Davey’s party stormed ahead, with candidate Bryony Hartley winning almost 60 per cent of the votes

Reform meanwhile fell behind with 26.2 per cent, while Labour again came in last place.

The by-election was triggered after the previous representative, Mick Strickland, decided to stand down from his role.

The full results:

  • Lib Dem: 59.8 per cent
  • Reform: 26.2 per cent
  • Conservative: 10.1 per cent
  • Labour: 3.9 per cent


LP Staff Writers

Writers at Lord’s Press come from a range of professional backgrounds, including history, diplomacy, heraldry, and public administration. Many publish anonymously or under initials—a practice that reflects the publication’s long-standing emphasis on discretion and editorial objectivity. While they bring expertise in European nobility, protocol, and archival research, their role is not to opine, but to document. Their focus remains on accuracy, historical integrity, and the preservation of events and individuals whose significance might otherwise go unrecorded.

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