Sir Keir Starmer has been handed yet another Red Wall blow after Reform UK seized another Labour stronghold voted in a council by-election last night.
Lliedi, in the heart of the post-industrial tin town of Llanelli, returned Reform’s first councillor to Carmarthenshire County Council.
The insurgent party received 42.6 per cent of the vote in yesterday’s by-election, opening up an enormous lead over second-place Labour on 23.4 per cent.
Labour’s support slumped by 34.8 per cent compared to 2022, with Plaid Cymru also increasing its vote share by eight per cent.
Llanelli is fast-becoming Reform’s top target in Wales.
Local candidate Gareth Beer, whose wife Michelle sealed victory in yesterday’s by-election, came in a close second in the 2024 General Election.
Despite Llanelli returning a Labour MP in every election since 1922 and a high number of Welsh-speakers giving Plaid Cymru significant support, Reform hoovered up 11,247 votes, just 1,504 less than Nia Griffith.
In stark contrast, Beer finished fifth in the 2021 Welsh Parliament Election, receiving the backing of just 672.
However, with opinion polls showing Reform and Plaid Cymru are vying to become Wales’s largest party, reducing Labour to a shock third-place, a number of other seats have been earmarked by the populist party for just another turquoise tsunami.
Nowcast forecasts Reform UK would currently sweep up 17 seats on the other side of the River Severn, including Llanelli.
Labour, which has been the largest party in Wales in every election since 1922, would only return five MPs after suffering 22 losses.
Plaid Cymru could only benefit from Starmer’s woes, with the left-wing nationalists picking up an extra three seats.
The Tories could even restore its limited presence in Wales, picking up the traditional true blue seat of Monmouthshire.
Reform’s top targets in Wales
- Llanelli
- Montgomeryshire & Glyndwr
- Neath & Swansea East
- Caerphilly
- Caerfyrddin
- Bangor Aberconwy
- Alyn & Deeside
- Torfaen
- Bridgend
- Newport West & Islwyn
Reform is now looking to make Wales its “top priority” ahead of next year’s set of elections.
Speaking to ITV earlier this month, Farage said: “I honestly believe that one of the reasons you’ve seen Reform surge in the way that it has in Wales, in terms of membership, in terms of activists, in terms of polling numbers, is – far from being the nasty party – We’re actually reflecting what a majority of decent people think.”
Farage also ruled himself out of running in the 2026 Welsh Parliament Election – despite speculation he would stand as a paper candidate in order to appear in televised debates.
“I don’t intend to do that, that would be playing the game in the most cynical way and I’m not going to do it,” he added.
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