Nigel Farage is on course to win the keys to No10 as Kemi Badenoch’s Tories brace for electoral wipeout, a shock new opinion poll has revealed.

Reform UK is hoovering up 29 per cent of the vote, putting the populist party seven-points ahead of Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour on 22 per cent.

In a potentially historic moment for British politics, the Liberal Democrats have leapfrogged the Tories into third-place, opening the door to Sir Ed Davey’s centrist clique overtaking the Conservatives at a General Election for the first time since 1910.

The Liberal Democrats secured 17 per cent of the vote, receiving a plurality of the support among those aged 18 to 24.

Meanwhile, the Tories slumped down to just 16 per cent, lower than at any point since Theresa May finished in fifth place in the 2019 EU Parliament Elections.

Electoral Calculus suggests Reform UK, which is leading in 16 out of the last 20 opinion polls, would secure 346 seats, handing Farage a majority of 42.

Despite suffering its worst electoral defeat since 1931, Labour would secure second place after returning 145 MPs to the House of Commons.

The Liberal Democrats, who have received a five-point bump since the 2024 General Election, would witness very little change, adding just one MP to its 73-strong Commons contingent.

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Top Tory in trouble:

Reform UK could take a number of electoral scalps at the expense of the Tories, including Badenoch’s own seat of North West Essex.

James Cleverly, Mel Stride, Suella Braverman, Jeremy Hunt, David Davis, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak, Esther McVey, Tom Tugendhat and Priti Patel are among the Conservative grandees also at risk of falling as the Tories face political extinction.

The Tories would be with just 17 seats including the surprise gains of Monmouthshire and North Somerset.

Conservative holds also include: Sutton Coldfield, Solihull West & Shirley, Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge, Leicester East, Epping Forest, Hertsmere, Chingford & Woodford Green, Croydon South, Ruislip, Northwood & Pinner, Harrow East, Reigate, Windsor, East Grinstead & Uckfield, Runnymede & Weybridge, and Beaconsfield.

Labour losses:

A number of Cabinet bigwigs would also be at risk of losing their seats.

Reform UK could topple Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Security Minister Dan Jarvis, Red Wall chief Jo White, Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, Defence Secretary John Healey, Culture Minister Chris Bryant, Pensions Minister Torsten Bell, Europe Minister Nick Thomas-Symonds, and City Minister Emma Reynolds.

Meanwhile, an SNP revival north of the border leaves Labour with just 12 seats in Scotland.

Despite YouGov’s latest poll reflecting a swing towards Reform, a General Election is not expected to be held until 2029.