Robert Jenrick has sensationally set the bar for success for the Conservative Party in May’s local elections.

Speaking exclusively to GB News, the Shadow Justice Secretary and former leadership candidate has said that his party must be “gaining ground” in May’s elections, compared to its election defeat last year.

This will be interpreted as a significant challenge to Kemi Badenoch, who – despite winning plaudits for her performance at Conservative Party Conference this week – has refused to answer the question whether she will remain leader after the local elections.

In May next year the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, all thirty-two London boroughs, thirty-two of the England’s thirty-six metropolitan boroughs, up to seven new amalgamated unitary authorities, six local authority mayors, and four new combined authority mayors are all up for election.

It’s such a big set of elections that Nigel Farage has even taken to calling it “the Mid-Terms”.

The Conservative Party was described as united this week after a successful speech and series of policy announcements from Kemi Badenoch. But analysts predict that the Tory Leader is only safe for now, with the local elections set to become the next major challenge to her authority.

As leader, Badenoch has overseen a decline in Conservative polling prospects, down from the 24% the party won in the 2024 General Election to an average of 17% since September, a seven point decline.

Yet Robert Jenrick told GB News “we have got to be gaining ground on where we were last year, otherwise we’re not making any progress”.

Currently polls suggest the Conservative Party will come fourth in Wales and perhaps fifth in Scotland, while remaining in a distant third place in England. This is considerably lower than where the party found itself in 2024.

I asked the Shadow Justice secretary specifically “what would be your benchmark for success?”

His answer was clear: “Well look we are only just over a year after suffering our worst ever election defeat, so I have always been clear that we have a mountain to climb to regain the public’s trust and confidence. But I want the Conservative Party to be back in business – to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down. Of course we have to use May to be winning seats to be getting into a much stronger position, we can’t keep slipping back…”

“So gaining ground in May is your benchmark?”, I pressed.

Mr. Jenrick replied “Well we have got to be gaining ground on where we were last year [2024], otherwise we’re not making any progress at all.”

The former leadership candidate knows this is a higher bar than it sounds. It implies the Tories must gain another 7% in the opinion polls compared to their position today, and that’s just to draw level with the 2024 result – a result Jenrick described as the party’s “worst ever election defeat”.

Observers will look at that bar for success, that demand for a seven point jump on current polling, and wonder – is Robert Jenrick rolling the pitch for a leadership challenge after the May elections?