BRUSSELS — The EU plans to propose sanctions on more Chinese companies linked to the Kremlin’s war effort this week, as part of a diplomatic charm offensive to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to finally press Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Over the weekend, Trump said he would join the EU in ratcheting up sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin, but only if NATO countries cut all oil imports from Russia and imposed tariffs of between 50 percent and 100 percent on China.

In response, EU diplomats want to show willingness to both end the trickle of remaining Russian oil imports — which have already been dramatically reduced — and support Trump’s efforts to turn the screws on China. 

Three diplomats who spoke to POLITICO said discussions on the EU’s 19th sanctions package, expected on Friday, included the potential addition of Chinese companies to the target list. But that falls well short of Trump’s tariff demand, and Chinese companies that have been added in the past have failed to satisfy the U.S. president.

Trump discussed the package with with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday evening. Posting online about the call, she said the new sanctions measures would target “crypto, banks, and energy.” Her post didn’t mention China.

EU diplomats are steeled for the U.S. president to be unimpressed with their efforts, and even suspect that he may be laying a trap for them.   

They fear that Trump’s demands over the weekend — particularly the call for tariffs, which the EU sees as impossible — could be a potential trap to stall action against Russia and flip the blame onto NATO allies for failing to take the tough action required to end the war. 

“Some of [Trump’s message] makes sense. Some of it is inventing reasons not to do anything,” said one EU official, granted anonymity, like others in this piece, to speak on a highly sensitive topic. 

That view was echoed by a national official from a European state. “Trump is setting conditions which, later on, knowing that it’s impossible, will form a pretext for telling us that he can’t do anything. Put quite simply, it’s a game to avoid responsibility,” the person said. 

At last week’s G7 finance ministers’ meeting, while there was “total agreement” on the need to squeeze Russia and support Ukraine,  the EU side balked at Trump’s tariffs demands on China, said an official from a G7 country. 

“We’re open to all of that — but with other tools,” the official added. 

The EU prefers targeted sanctions against companies linked to the war rather than blanket tariffs.

Economic warfare

In addition to potentially passing the buck to Western allies, Trump’s trap also has an economic dimension, as far as the Europeans are concerned. A fourth EU diplomat said he suspected — but could not be sure of — a commercial motive from Trump.

Sanctions of up to 100 percent on imports from China would fuel sky-high inflation levels in Europe and undermine the EU economy. A total ban on Russian energy would bolster U.S. ambitions to expand liquefied natural gas exports. 

“President Trump exposes Washington’s willingness to instrumentalize Europe’s vulnerabilities for its own geopolitical gain,” said Lithuanian Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas.

Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a senior researcher at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, also stressed a concrete goal: “He’s trying to get Europe to buy more U.S. LNG.”

The European Commission stressed it had already been working for several years to ditch Russian fossil fuels. 

“This is something that we’ve been actively doing for three years, practically, which is the phasing out of imports of fossil fuels from Russia. And we’re well on track with regard to our own plans,” the Commission’s chief spokesperson Paula Pinho said Tuesday. 

Signs of goodwill

Even if Trump’s language on Russia is finally hardening in line with Europe’s wishes — identifying Putin as the aggressor at long last — Europeans, as well as Trump’s own Republicans, are still highly skeptical about whether his intentions are genuine.

“The big question on the minds of many European officials is, is this ultimately going to form part of a more coherent strategy? Or is it actually an attempt by the administration to rock off on the conflict and to blame the Europeans for Trump’s inability to end the conflict?” said Mujtaba Rahman, head of Europe at the Eurasia Group, a think tank.

“To be coherent, the missing link, of course, is the Trump administration’s willingness to lean on Putin, which the Europeans are not seeing at the moment,” he added. 

Trump “continues to make it pretty clear he’s not eager to follow through [on his threats to Russia],” echoed a Republican aide. 

Brussels is walking a tightrope between keeping Washington onside against Putin while avoiding a rupture with Beijing, on which Europe’s economy heavily depends. 

“We don’t want to antagonize China and India, but we try to do our maximum to navigate the pressure from the U.S,” said one of the three EU diplomats who spoke to POLITICO, briefed on the discussions about the 19th sanctions package. 

Several EU countries, including Denmark and Poland, are also pushing the EU executive to take advantage of Trump’s pressure to strong-arm Slovakia and Hungary, which are still buying Russian oil.

“I think Trump has that leverage. Ideologically, they [Hungary] are the closest match to MAGA in Europe,” said a senior EU official. “Will it tilt things? I don’t know.” 

Asked about Trump’s demands, the European Commission said it was working very closely with the G7, as well as the U.S., on the implementation of sanctions. 

“We coordinate closely with all our partners, particularly in the context of the G7. Of course, in this respect, the U.S. is a crucially important partner,” said Olof Gill, the European Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson on Monday, referring to recent visits from the EU’s sanctions envoy David O’Sullivan to Washington to coordinate on sanctions. 

‘We would drown’

Behind the scenes, however, EU diplomats and officials are adamant that slapping tariffs on China — as well as India, as Trump suggested last week — is a political and economic no-go.

 “No trade with China and India? We would drown. What would be left of us?” said a fifth European diplomat. 

A sixth added: “Even if we give in to the demand and take the big risk, there’s no guarantee that the U.S. will follow suit.” 

Historically, Brussels has distinguished between tariffs, which are considered a trade tool, and sanctions, viewed as a foreign policy tool. 

While its approach has shifted over the past years, especially towards Russia, several diplomats raised concerns over the compatibility of tariffs as a foreign policy measure — as envisaged by Trump — with EU law. 

What’s more, EU countries vary greatly in just how hard they think the bloc should hit Beijing, given its economic dependence on the Asian powerhouse.

Despite repeated pledges to diversify away from China, it still accounts for some 21 percent of EU imports. Berlin, whose economy is particularly intertwined with Beijing’s, has historically called for caution for fear of major damage to critical sectors, such as its automotive industry. 

Brussels is therefore looking to make more use of targeted export controls on Chinese firms — for instance, those selling military technology to Russia — as it has done in earlier sanctions packages. 

The problem there, said Agathe Demarais from the European Council on Foreign Relations, is that “once you impose sanctions on these firms, they will reopen under another name.” 

“It’s really a Whack-A-Mole game,” she said. 

Jacopo Barigazzi, Nicholas Vinocur, Giorgio Leali, Elena Giordano contributed reporting. Eli Stokols contributed reporting from Washington.