LONDON — Keir Starmer has lost two of his top team, faced a public call for his resignation from a senior Labour figure, and been damaged by fresh revelations about the relationship between Peter Mandelson — the man he chose for the role of ambassador to the U.S — and the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

But he remains in No. 10 Downing Street, vowing to fight on.

“I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country, I will never walk away from the people that I’m charged with fighting for, I will never walk away from the country that I love,” he said Tuesday in his first public comments after Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for him to quit.

The PM remains unpopular across the country, and his fighting talk hasn’t silenced the private whispers about his future in Labour circles. 

POLITICO sets out the five reasons Britain’s troubled prime minister might survive — even if only for a little while longer.

Anas Sarwar is going it alone

The Scottish Labour leader’s surprise call for Starmer to quit on Monday triggered a wave of speculation about whether any other senior Labour politicians would follow suit. In the end, he was left on his own.

Starmer’s entire Cabinet almost immediately declared their support for the prime minister, killing any momentum for a campaign to oust him.

Even Sarwar’s counterpart in Wales, Eluned Morgan — who like Sarwar is facing a drubbing in May elections for the Senedd —  declared her support for the PM on Tuesday morning.

“There was an expectation when we found out it was happening that others would follow,” said one Labour frontbencher in the Scottish parliament, granted anonymity to discuss internal discussions. “They didn’t.” 

What could have been a moment of terminal danger for the PM ultimately never materialized — and the negative reaction that greeted Sarwar may well discourage other senior figures from calling time on Starmer’s tenure.

The contenders

The main question for the PM’s critics is: If not Starmer, then who?

The difficulty for those seeking a change of prime minister is that most of Starmer’s obvious successors have their own problems to contend with.

Angela Rayner, Starmer’s former deputy leader, still has an HMRC investigation into her tax affairs hanging over her.

Wes Streeting, the ambitious health secretary, was an associate of Mandelson. He voluntarily released his text messages with the former ambassador on Monday in an effort to show he has nothing to hide — but the disclosure still suggests the pair had a friendly relationship. His constituency in Ilford is also far from a safe seat. 

Andy Burnham, another popular candidate among the Labour Party faithful, isn’t in parliament. The Greater Manchester mayor was blocked by Starmer and Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee from running for a vacant seat in Westminster.

That bit of skullduggery from the PM’s team means Burnham won’t be able to challenge the PM for the leadership, unless he runs for another seat that becomes available.

Other possible contenders do exist, but right now no one is prepared to go over the top.

That could change. If a serious candidate for the leadership were to emerge, all bets are off.

The Parliamentary Labour Party

Starmer’s MPs could ultimately bring the PM down if they wanted to. A Monday night meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) suggested they aren’t yet in that frame of mind. 

After a rallying speech from Starmer, MPs gave the troubled prime minister multiple standing ovations and happily briefed the media about the strength of his performance.

What could have been a tricky moment for the PM turned into a triumph — even if only a temporary one.

MPs remain worried about upcoming electoral contests.

A February by-election in Greater Manchester is expected to be tough for the party, with the Green Party challenging Labour on the left and the poll-topping Reform UK also going for the seat.

Opinion polls suggest local and national contests in May will see Labour face deep losses. 

For now, MPs appear willing to wait. The Labour Party is traditionally less disposed to remove its leaders — even when deeply unpopular.

“The PLP will use any opportunity they can to kick the can down the road. They are utterly useless at removing a leader,” one senior Labour figure said.

The bond markets

Labour MPs are acutely aware that prime ministers can come unstuck over the economy. Just ask Liz Truss.

The shortest-serving ex-Tory prime minister’s “mini-budget” precipitated market turmoil, sent the pound tumbling and roiled stock markets.

The PM’s allies are keen to tell anyone who will listen that removing Starmer would create market uncertainty over the economic direction of the country.

The cost of government borrowing rose sharply last July when Chancellor Rachel Reeves was seen crying in the Commons. Reeves said her tears were due to an undisclosed personal matter, but they initially prompted speculation about her future in the Treasury — and sent the City into a panic.

Borrowing costs rose early on Monday as Starmer’s leadership appeared to be in doubt. Cabinet backing for the prime minister that afternoon prompted a modest rebound.

However much they dislike it, some Labour MPs just can’t ignore the markets.

Lessons from Tory turmoil

There is also the “don’t be the Conservatives” pitch.

Britain’s depleted center-right Tories have been more than happy to depose a figurehead when the going gets tough — but it hasn’t always helped.

Theresa May replaced David Cameron as PM in 2016 — but lost the Conservatives’ majority after calling an ill-advised snap election the following year. Liz Truss took over from Boris Johnson in 2022 … and was out of Downing Street 49 days later. Her successor, Rishi Sunak, led the Tories to their worst-ever defeat in the 2024 general election.

Climate Secretary Ed Miliband embraced that argument on Tuesday.

“Labour MPs looked over the precipice and they didn’t like what they saw,” he told broadcasters.

“As a collective body, the Cabinet, the Labour Party looked at the alternatives of going down this road of a chaotic leadership election, trying to depose a prime minister, and they said: ‘No, that’s not for us.’”

The problem for Starmer is that sentiment might not hold.

If his poll ratings don’t improve, or if there’s another big misstep from No. 10, Labour MPs might just be willing to roll the dice.