BRUSSELS ― Europe’s strategy for convincing the Belgians to support its plan to fund Ukraine? Warn them they could be treated like Hungary.

At their summit on Dec. 18, EU leaders’ key task will be to win over Bart De Wever, the bloc’s latest bête noire. Belgium’s prime minister is vetoing their efforts to pull together a €210 billion loan to Ukraine as it faces a huge financial black hole and as the war with Russian grinds on. De Wever has dug his heels in for so long over the plan to fund the loan using frozen Russian assets ― which just happen to be mostly housed in Belgium ― that diplomats from across the bloc are now working on strategies to get him on board.

De Wever is holding out over fears Belgium will be on the hook should the money need to be paid back, and has now asked for more safety nets. Nearly all the Russian assets are housed in Euroclear, a financial depository in Brussels.

He wants the EU to provide an extra cash buffer on top of financial guarantees and increased safeguards to cover potential legal disputes and settlements — an idea many governments oppose.

Belgium has sent a list of amendments it wants, to ensure it isn’t forced to repay the money to Moscow alone if sanctions are lifted. De Wever said he won’t back the reparations loan if his concerns aren’t met.

Leaders thought they’d have a deal the last time they all met in October. Then, it was unthinkable they wouldn’t get one in December. Now it looks odds-on.

All hope isn’t lost yet, diplomats say. Ambassadors will go line by line through Belgium’s requests, figure out the biggest concerns and seek to address them. There’s still room for maneuver. The plan is to come as close to the Belgian position as they can.

But a week before leaders meet, the EU is turning the screws. If De Wever continues to block the plan ― a path he’s been on for several months, putting forward additional conditions and demands ― he will find himself in an uncomfortable and remarkable position for the leader of a country that for so long has been pro-EU, according to an EU diplomat with knowledge of the discussions taking place.

The Belgium leader would be frozen out and ignored, just like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has been given the cold shoulder over democratic backsliding and his refusal to play ball on sanctioning Russia.

The message to Belgium is that if it does not come on board, its diplomats, ministers and leaders will lose their voice around the EU table. Officials would put to the bottom of the pile Belgium’s wishlist and concerns related to the EU’s long-term budget for 2028–2034, which would cause the government a major headache, particularly when negotiations get into the crucial final stretch in 18 months’ time.

Its views on EU proposals will not be sought. Its phone calls will go unanswered, the diplomat said.

It would be a harsh reality for a country that is both literally and symbolically at the heart of the EU project, and that has punched above its weight when it comes to taking on leading roles such as the presidency of the European Council.

But diplomats say desperate times call for desperate measures. Ukraine faces a budget shortfall next year of €71.7 billion, and will have to start cutting public spending from April unless it can secure the money. U.S. President Donald Trump has again distanced himself from providing American support.

Underscoring the high stakes, EU ambassadors are meeting three times this week — on Wednesday, Friday and Sunday — for talks on the Commission’s proposal for the loan, published last week.  

Plan B — and Plan C — for Ukraine

The European Commission put forward one other option for funding Ukraine: joint debt backed by the EU’s next seven-year budget.

Hungary has formally ruled out issuing eurobonds, and raising debt through the EU budget to prop up Ukraine requires a unanimous vote.

That leaves a Plan C: for some countries to dig into their own treasuries to keep Ukraine afloat.

That prospect isn’t among the Commission’s proposals, but diplomats are quietly discussing it. Germany, the Nordics and the Baltics are seen as the most likely participants.

But those floating the idea have a warning: The most significant benefit conferred by EU membership to countries around the bloc is solidarity. By forcing some member countries to carry the financial burden of supporting Ukraine alone, the bloc risks a serious split at its core.

Germany in future may not choose to prop up a failing bank in a country that doesn’t stump up the cash for Kyiv now, the thinking goes.

“Solidarity is a two-way street,” a diplomat said.

For sure, there is another way — but only in theory. De Wever’s fellow EU leaders could band together and pass the “reparation loan” plan via so-called qualified majority voting, ignoring Belgium’s rejections and just steamrollering it through. But diplomats said this is not being seriously considered.

Bjarke Smith-Meyer and Gregorio Sorgi contributed reporting.