PARIS — France’s prime minister is likely to be ousted — again — and political turmoil risks delaying the country’s pledge to boost defense spending, amid increasing worry about the Russia threat and Donald Trump’s commitment to European security.

If French lawmakers topple François Bayrou on Monday as expected, the overall direction of higher military spending will be slowed, but it’s not likely to be scrapped.

However, the country’s focus on its domestic troubles comes in sharp contrast with French President Emmanuel Macron’s push for leadership on the global stage. On Thursday, he co-chairs alongside U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer a meeting of the so-called coalition of the willing, a group of countries working on security guarantees for Ukraine in case of a ceasefire with Russia.

“There is a huge gap between the international context, which is still very bad with the war in Ukraine, and the internal French situation which seems disconnected from these issues,” said Guillaume Lagane, an expert on defense policy and a teacher at the Sciences Po public research university.

“There is a strategic signaling problem; we are not conveying the right message to our adversaries and allies,” he stressed, adding: “Our allies are moving forward [with their military buildup], and we’re not.”

If Bayrou is voted out next week, it’ll be the second time in less than a year that a French prime minister is toppled by the National Assembly, after Michel Barnier’s fall in December.

“Once again, there is uncertainty,” conceded French Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu last week when asked about the impact of Monday’s vote on the country’s military ramp-up. Lecornu is one of the front-runners to replace Bayrou should he be ousted.

New military planning law

In July, Macron promised that France would boost defense spending to €64 billion in 2027. His pledge came a few weeks after NATO allies committed to boost defense spending to 5 percent of gross domestic product, including 3.5 percent of GDP for purely military expenditures. That’s a sharp increase compared with the previous 2 percent target.

The French president said the government would present to parliament in the fall an update of the seven-year military planning law to earmark the spending increases. That bill, which is not ready yet, is bound to be postponed if France has to change government or even go through another snap election — an option that remains on the table.

“The defense budget increases announced by President Macron … [and] welcomed by a majority of the political class, remain dependent on a vote in parliament: they are therefore now uncertain,” said Bertrand de Cordoue, an adviser on defense and armament at the Jacques Delors Institute.

There is broad agreement across France’s political spectrum that the country’s defense expenditure should increase and a change in prime minister is not likely to threaten that. According to Hélène Conway-Mouret, a Socialist senator who sits on the defense and foreign affairs committee, “no one will dare touch the [defense spending] commitments that have been made, because they are existential.”

However, parliament, industry and military officials warned in conversations with POLITICO that precious time will inevitably be wasted. Defense companies will also be more reluctant to invest or make long-term plans before the political crisis is resolved, they said.

This week, Lecornu embarked on a France-wide tour to visit defense companies despite the political crisis, in a bid to show that prep work for the updated military planning law continues regardless.

But in French defense circles, there’s an awkward feeling of déjà vu. “Here we go again,” sighed a defense industry official, speaking on condition of being granted anonymity, summing up the mood among French arms-makers.

The fall of Barnier’s government ultimately led to months of delays in orders and payments for military equipment. “The military has not forgotten that the Barnier government’s censorship messed up some of the weapons programs,” said a parliament official.