LONDON and BIRMINGHAM — Nigel Farage once had to escape a crowd of angry Scots by hiding in an Edinburgh pub. Now, Scots look set to vote for Farage to an extent never seen before — a development that could create a fresh source of danger for Keir Starmer’s troubled Labour government in the U.K.

A string of defections, positive national and council-level by-election results, and a strong showing in opinion polls has placed Farage’s Reform UK party in a tantalizing position to capitalize in next May’s Scottish parliament elections, where the Scottish Labour Party, led by Starmer ally Anas Sarwar, had hoped to unseat the long-governing Scottish National Party.

Instead, Scotland, long regarded as being immune to the charms of Farage and his populist right, is on the cusp of falling in love with the ultimate Little Englander.

Reform’s teams in Scotland and the U.K. don’t expect to form the next Scottish government, but their strength in polling, and the chance they could win a potentially crucial cluster of seats, adds uncertainty and a smack of chaos to the election campaign. The race was expected to be between Labour and the SNP — but would turbocharge Reform’s hopes of entering No. 10 Downing Street if they can demonstrate momentum and strength. 

“We’re aiming for second,” said one senior Reform UK figure, granted anonymity to speak frankly like others in this article. “But that’s with a view on becoming closer to power [next time].”

Eating the Tories — and Labour

Farage’s previous outfits, UKIP and the Brexit Party, failed to make much of a breakthrough in Scotland. Called “scum” during a 2013 visit to the Scottish capital to launch his party’s campaign for a Holyrood by-election (Farage never even managed to introduce the candidate), UKIP had trouble attracting the same level of enthusiasm there as it did in England and Wales because of its perceived “Little Englander” image and — back then — the different mindset toward immigration in Scotland.

“UKIP made little headway [in Scotland] because they looked like cranks with crank fixations on Europe and ‘foreigners,’” one Scottish Tory lawmaker said.

But Scotland’s politics have shifted and, just as across the rest of the U.K., Reform’s surge in popularity has come at the expense of the Conservatives. While the center-right party kept most of its Scottish seats in last year’s election battering, the Scottish Conservatives are at risk of drifting into obscurity — giving Reform an opportunity to fill the gap. 

The party looks almost certain to finish well ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland, and the Scottish Tories — led by Russell Findlay, who has struggled to garner any attention — finished a distant fourth behind Reform, the SNP and Labour at a recent Holyrood by-election.

While the Scottish Conservatives face an existential threat, Scottish Labour is also struggling to hold back the Reform tide, and has watched Reform sweep up votes even in typically Labour-voting working class areas of Glasgow. 

Scottish Labour leader Sarwar had once seemed all but certain to win the next election after a thumping win over the SNP last July — and to capitalize on the SNP’s struggles after almost 20 years in government. 

But now Scottish Labour face a battle even to finish second, with Reform eating into the split anti-SNP vote. Sarwar told the POLITICO Pub at a Labour conference in Liverpool Monday that this would only help “keep the SNP in power” — but ruled out any agreement with Reform, branding Farage a “charlatan” and a “comedian,” and saying voters would see through him.

“I’ll always obviously be more Scottish than Nigel Farage will ever be. But I’ll tell you what, I am more representative of British values as well than Nigel Farage will ever be,” Sarwar told POLITICO. “Scotland will reject them next year, and probably the U.K. will reject them come the next general election as well.” 

The SNP, meanwhile, has tried to portray their party as the only one willing to take on Reform — a strategy that is expected to continue in the lead-up to May, despite backfiring in the summer’s Hamilton by-election.

“Unlike other political parties at Westminster, the SNP are really prepared to take on Reform on the ideas like Brexit, leaving the European Convention on Human Rights,” said SNP MP Stephen Gethins.

Farage factor

Farage himself won’t lead the party’s Scottish push but will instead focus on Reform’s campaign in Wales, a second Reform insider said, where Reform hope to form a government. 

In his place, Reform has yet to pick an outright Scottish leader. Three former Scottish Conservatives are said to be the frontrunners to become the party’s figurehead north of the border: MSP Graham Simpson, Councilor Thomas Kerr and former MP Ross Thomson. 

Yet the U.K. Reform boss remains a key figurehead for the party in Scotland, and how Scots feel about him — positive or otherwise — will dominate the narrative. 

“Nigel Farage is the face of Reform. So if Nigel Farage was deeply unpopular in Scotland, Reform wouldn’t be polling as well as they are,” Reform MSP Graham Simpson told POLITICO. The Reform party declined to comment for this story.

“If he wanted to do a walkabout [in Scotland] I don’t think he would get the reaction that he got 10 years ago,” Simpson added. “He had a bit of a tough time in a pub in Edinburgh a wee while ago … but the mood in Scotland has changed completely.” 

“It would be nice to think he could [now] go for a pint somewhere in Scotland,” Simpson said.