Hungary’s Viktor Orbán may find support in unusual corners for his bid to stop Ukraine from joining the EU — including from French President Emmanuel Macron.

Ahead of a gathering of EU leaders in Copenhagen Oct. 1, European Council President António Costa has been lobbying European leaders to find a way around Hungary’s opposition to Kyiv’s joining the bloc, among other stalled membership bids.

As first reported by POLITICO on Monday, the Portuguese politician has offered to change EU rules to allow formal accession talks to begin following approval by a qualified majority of leaders, rather than by unanimous consent as is currently required.

But Costa’s plan is proving controversial. While Orbán is the EU leader closest to President Vladimir Putin and most hostile to Ukraine, other leaders have very different motives to join his side — mainly to defend their veto power.

The plan faces pushback from several EU countries, including France, the Netherlands and Greece, and is unlikely to get wide approval in Denmark, according to three EU diplomats and a French presidency official who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations. 

The concern among these countries is that by changing the accession rules, they would also be limiting their own ability to block membership bids they see as problematic, the same people said. That opens up a host of rivalries that Orbán can play upon: It’s important to the Greeks, for example, to show they can hold up talks on Turkey’s membership, just as Bulgarians want to be able to draw the line on North Macedonia, and Croats to block Serbia.

Costa’s suggestion would open a path forward not just for Ukraine — whose bid has been held up for months due to Orbán’s veto — but also for Moldova, as the two countries’ candidacies are linked.

According to a senior EU official, Costa’s proposal will be on the table in Copenhagen on Wednesday, along with another proposal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. “No leader to this day replied with a total ‘no’ to this idea,” the senior official said, referring to Costa’s rule-change proposal.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb told POLITICO that he backed any attempt to speed up the process. “Any decision-making mechanism which gives more flexibility and less possibility to block I personally welcome, and never more so than with Ukraine,” he said.

But the camp opposing Costa and Stubb may prove too strong. And if the price of preserving the rules is that Ukraine and Moldova may have to wait months, if not years, to see their bids move forward, it’s one that these countries are willing to pay.

“We’re not convinced at all by changing the rules of the game during the game, because that is what some are proposing,” said a senior EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters.

“If you do qualified majority voting [to push the accession process forward], there is a very big risk of the process being extremely politicized,” they added.

An even greater challenge is that in order to change the rules, all 27 member countries including Hungary would have to be in agreement — a non-starter for these diplomats.

“If we had to change or evolve on the decision-making process, that would also have to be decided via unanimity, which does not seem to be possible today,” said a French presidency official.

Pulling for Ukraine

The push to streamline EU accession comes as top EU officials throw their weight behind the Ukrainian and Moldovan membership bids.

Von der Leyen has repeatedly stated that Ukraine “belongs in the EU,” arguing that Kyiv could achieve full membership in the 27-member grouping by 2030 if it carries on with judicial and economic reforms.

Kyiv has carried out judicial reforms and has had extensive talks with counterparts in Brussels, but legally speaking, negotiations have yet to begin. That’s because under the current rules, Hungary can block formal talks.

Moldova is in the same boat. Chișinău’s bid to join the 27-member bloc — which President Maia Sandu placed at the heart of the campaign ahead of legislative elections this past Sunday — is tied to that of Ukraine, meaning it cannot advance as long as Kyiv’s candidacy remains blocked.

The stalled process carries a price for both Sandu and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as both tout future EU membership as an alternative to Russia’s sphere of influence.

Costa’s initiative won backing this week from the European Commission, where officials privately say that the current process — which requires a unanimous vote at more than 100 stages — is too cumbersome.

Costa’s idea is to introduce qualified majority voting at those interim stages so that progress can be made, even if a small number of countries are opposed. Final accession to the EU would still be impossible without unanimous approval.

Orbán’s unlikely allies

But that push is now running into opposition from leaders who see their membership veto as deeply tied up with national sovereignty.

Take Greece, which has long opposed Turkey’s membership bid as a security threat. Athens relies on its veto as a way of guaranteeing that Ankara will never join the EU — even if Turkey’s bid is legally on hold.

“On this proposal we are very cautious,” said a Greek official, referring to Costa’s rule-tweak proposal.

Paris has also historically opposed Turkey’s accession to the bloc, with Macron telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as recently as 2018 there was no chance of Ankara’s bid advancing.

The same goes for Bulgaria, which wants to be able to block North Macedonia’s entry into the bloc, or Croatia, which has historically opposed Serbia’s accession. 

“Obviously the Hungarians are blocking the Ukrainians,” said the first EU diplomat.

“But that’s not all. The Bulgarians want to be able to block the Macedonians, the Croats want to be able to control the Serbs, Greece and Cyprus don’t want Turkey to come any closer to the EU, and Greece also would want to keep an eye on Albania,” the diplomat added.

In public, EU leaders may oppose Hungary’s blocking of Ukraine. But behind closed doors, many find it a convenient cover for their own demands.

Tim Ross, Gregorio Sorgi and Gabriel Gavin contributed reporting.