LONDON — Keir Starmer opted for a brutal show of force against one of his would-be challengers. But his Labour critics say the U.K. prime minister has only hastened his demise.

On Sunday, Starmer corralled a nine-strong committee of officers on the party’s ruling National Executive Committee (NEC) to block popular Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from running in a by-election for the seat of Gorton and Denton. 

The move could have allowed Burnham — an old hand from Westminster affectionately dubbed the “King of the North” by his fans in Greater Manchester and beyond — to sweep into parliament, where he would be poised to challenge a prime minister struggling in the polls for the top job.

Yet in acting ruthlessly, the usually-cautious Starmer — who is officially citing the additional costs of fighting a mayoral race — has already sparked a fierce internal backlash.

Five Labour MPs told POLITICO a letter is being organized calling on Starmer to allow the wider 39-strong NEC to have another say. The move would allow a rethink among a wider group of officers, ranging from senior union figures to MPs and constituency parties that are less under No.10’s control. There would, however, be no guarantee that they’d reach a different conclusion — and the move would be bound to extend the row over Burnham.

One MP said the letter addressed to Starmer has amassed more than 50 signatures so far, including from “quite prominent” figures. Like others in this article, they were granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject threatening to roil the party.

“I will probably sign the letter because Andy has always had my back but it is pointless. As if they (No.10) care one percent — they are brutal,” said a second MP, who also sits on the party’s soft left. “But I think it hastens Keir’s demise.”

Even if signatories of the letter think it’ll have little chance of succeeding, there is a sense that Starmer’s power move may well backfire. Prominent potential Starmer challengers who already have their seats in parliament are seen as the big benefactors.

“My view is that it’s the end of Starmer and Wes will be PM in seven months,” said a third MP, in a reference to Wes Streeting, the ambitious health secretary who the PM’s allies have previously linked to a leadership bid.

Some who didn’t even support Burnham making a run for the Commons are angered by the way in which he was blocked — though there are MPs who are nonetheless calling for the party to “keep calm and carry on,” as one senior backbencher put it.

‘Fight and win’

The biggest flashpoint for any challenge to Starmer is the May 7 elections, when voters go to the polls across England — while voters in Scotland and Wales pick their devolved administrations too.

Defeat for Labour in Wales — where it has run the devolved Senedd since its creation in 1999 — would be particularly painful. 

A date for the Gorton and Denton by-election is yet to be set — but there are signs both Reform on the right and the Greens from the left could mount strong challenges. 

Defeat for Labour in a seat it won last time with a 13,000-plus majority would be a humiliation for Starmer’s project — and would reignite questions over whether Burnham should have been allowed to challenge for it.

Still, Starmer has on his side a commanding majority from the 2024 general election and more than three years remaining until the next one. Forcing a leadership contest in the Labour Party is not easy — 80-plus MPs would have to publicly back a single contender to force it.

They are yet to rally around a designated challenger — and, for now, one of the potential pretenders remains safely outside the palace walls.

Speaking to broadcasters on Monday, Starmer said: “Andy Burnham is doing a great job as the mayor of Manchester, but having an election for the mayor of Manchester when it’s not necessary would divert our resources away from the elections we must have and we must fight and win.” 

That pressure to win only feels greater now.