PARIS — President Emmanuel Macron’s allies don’t seem to have any good answers as to what happens after the almost certain fall of the government of Prime Minister François Bayrou in the Sept. 8 parliamentary vote of confidence.

The names of Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin are emerging in the chatter as potential successors to the poisoned chalice of the premiership, but what would a new recruit really solve? A new PM will be ensnared in exactly the same quagmire.

French politics will still be too internally riven to pass vital deficit-slashing reforms, despite Bayrou’s Cassandra-like warnings that France could be headed toward a Greek-style debt crisis if it sits on its hands and doesn’t implement an unpopular €43.8 billion budget squeeze.

So how about another snap election? If Macron calls one, the political landscape could still be mired in exactly the same impasse — but the blame after a vote would more obviously fall on him rather than on his prime minister. And all that time, the financial markets will be running out of patience regarding France’s ability to put its books in order.

All in all, a state of shock grips elected officials, aides and advisers from the various parties that support France’s minority government.

“It’s a tough blow for the president,” said one minister’s political adviser who, like others in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the political chaos. They noted that a day of mass protests, potentially shutting the country down, was in the offing only two days after Bayrou’s expected exit.

“A political crisis on Sept. 8, a social crisis on Sept. 10. That’s a regime crisis, isn’t it?”

New man for the Matignon

Macron’s centrists seem to be clutching at straws. The first signals coming out of the Elysée Palace seemed to indicate the president is not considering dissolving parliament and going for another election.

Instead, Macron is thought to be considering tapping the young, center-right Lecornu to lead the government. Someone close to Macron said Justice Minister Darmanin, who has long eyed the premiership, is also a candidate, but doesn’t want to inherit what appears to be a suicide mission.

Bother Lecornu and Darmanin originally hailed from the conservative Les Républicains party and have been with Macron since 2017. Lecornu is closer to the president, and Macron almost nominated him before Bayrou imposed himself as premier. He’s seen as more biddable, while Darmanin is highly ambitious and more independent-minded.

An individual close to Lecornu said the 39-year-old privately boasts of enjoying a privileged relationship with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, while at the same time insisting he could lead a coalition government of both the right and the left. 

But will that relationship with the National Rally help him succeed in the bloody budget arena where both Bayrou and former Prime Minister Michel Barnier failed?

Many centrists say no: Nothing indicates that either Le Pen or the socialists have any intention of supporting him any more than they did Bayrou.

“There is no scenario, no new casting choice that can resolve the crisis,” the ministerial adviser said.

For the conservative Les Républicains supporting Bayrou’s minority government, the suggestion of Lecornu is yet another example of an unfailingly optimistic president who refuses to accept defeat. Macron himself reportedly tried to downplay the crisis at Wednesday’s weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers.

“He can’t help trying to regain control,” said a dejected member of Les Républicains. “It’s his natural inclination.”

Even a technocratic government of experts to solve the budget mess — a rather Italian-sounding fix — would need to navigate a splintered National Assembly filled with lawmakers looking head to key municipal elections next year and the presidential election in 2027.

Unappetizing election

Sending the French back to the ballot box, however, also carries its own set of risks for a president worried about his legacy. It was, after all, the surprise snap vote following European elections last summer that shunted France into its current deadlock and irrevocably damaged Macron’s reputation.

Polling shows voters could easily deliver another hung parliament in any election in the coming weeks or months.

“The worst for him is a dissolution that doesn’t work, because then he’s the one who gets the boot,” another ministerial adviser said.

That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, however. Before Monday, Macron had repeatedly ruled out calling new elections before the end of his term, but the Elysée insists he will not deprive himself of a constitutional power .

“Mystery is part of the presidential strategy,” said a close associate of Macron.

Bayrou for president

Bayrou’s camp, meanwhile, remains stunned by the speed at which his fate was sealed by opposition lawmakers — especially the far right — and is struggling to convince people the situation is under control.

One individual in the prime minister’s entourage said he hoped Le Pen and the National Rally would reconsider their position after 48 hours. The hope was that Bayrou’s team could do the dirty work of balancing France’s books before 2027 while also avoiding the danger of a legislative election in which Le Pen would be barred from running due to her embezzlement conviction.

Bayrou for now appears to be waging a battle in the court of public opinion, giving a flurry of speeches and interviews in the hope of leaving the Matignon Palace, the prime ministerial residence, with his head held high. 

It has the air of a campaign strategy for 2027, and Bayrou has long aspired to the Elysée.

“At least he will have earned his stripes as a presidential candidate,” one Macron supporter said.