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Micheál Martin’s future as Irish PM in doubt as his presidential pick crashes out

DUBLIN — The political future of Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin has been plunged into doubt by the shock withdrawal of his personal choice to become the country’s next president.

Martin had bewildered and irritated many within his own centrist Fianna Fáil party by pushing the out-of-nowhere candidacy of Jim Gavin. The former military pilot and manager of Dublin’s championship-winning Gaelic football team had never sought elected office before — and it painfully showed in a gaffe-filled campaign.

Gavin’s bid to be elected president in the Oct. 24 election crashed to the ground hours after he faced accusations of being a rip-off landlord, a particularly damaging charge in a country where the scarcity and prohibitive cost of housing is a top election issue.

In a statement issued shortly before midnight, Gavin appeared to confirm media reports that he had failed to refund a tenant more than €3,000 in overpaid rent on a Dublin apartment back in 2009.

“I made a mistake that was not in keeping with my character and the standards I set myself,” Gavin said. “I have decided to withdraw from the presidential election contest with immediate effect and return to the arms of my family.”

But it’s legally too late to remove Gavin from the three-candidate ballot. This means any votes cast next month for Gavin will still need to be counted and redistributed to the other two candidates, pro-government former minister Heather Humphreys and anti-government socialist Catherine Connolly — and could prove pivotal in deciding the winner.

There’s even a fear in government circles that disillusioned voters angry with the choices on offer could vote for Gavin in protest, “electing” a figure who’s no longer willing to serve as Ireland’s next ceremonial head of state. That would produce a potential constitutional crisis.

The figure most obviously in the firing line now is Martin, the great survivor of Irish political life.

The 65-year-old Corkman took the helm of Fianna Fáil on the eve of its greatest-ever electoral drubbing back in 2011 when his party was blamed for the country’s banking crash and international bailout. He led Fianna Fáil back from the political ashes to become a joint leader of Ireland’s last two coalition governments since 2020.

In January, Martin regained the top post of prime minister following Fianna Fáil’s stronger-than-expected performance in last year’s general election. Under terms of his renewed coalition deal with fellow center-ground party Fine Gael, he is supposed to serve as taoiseach until late 2027, when he passes the job back to the Fine Gael chief, Foreign Minister Simon Harris.

But his political vulnerability within Fianna Fáil was laid bare last month when he plucked Gavin from political obscurity to contest the presidency. Martin failed to consult widely in advance with his own party lawmakers, who were asked to rubber-stamp the move. Nearly 30 refused and instead backed one of Fianna Fáil’s longest-serving parliamentarians, MEP Billy Kelleher.

Jim Gavin’s bid to be elected president in the Oct. 24 election crashed to the ground hours after he faced accusations of being a rip-off landlord. | Niall Carson/PA Images via Getty Images

Following Gavin’s withdrawal, Kelleher quickly took to the Irish airwaves Monday to decry how Martin and senior advisers had failed to vet or prepare Gavin for a campaign that “went so horribly wrong so quickly.”

When asked whether Martin’s leadership was now at risk, Kelleher told RTÉ radio: “Obviously a lot of people are very upset over this. That does have consequences from a party perspective. It is a very serious miscalculation.”

On the campaign trail, Martin often appeared at Gavin’s side as his choice committed one misstep after another.

First, the Dubliner ran an online ad targeting rural voters in which he claimed to hail from farming roots — while failing to bolt a cattle gate and striding through the muck in white trousers.

Next, the former Irish Defence Forces pilot had to withdraw other video ads after the drone operator contracted for the work was found to have violated airspace laws in Dublin and near the capital’s airport. That undercut Gavin’s reputation for competence as chief operations officer at Ireland’s aviation regulator.

He also attracted criticism from within Irish military ranks for other, rapidly withdrawn or re-edited campaign material that showed soldiers appearing to endorse, or even physically applaud, his candidacy. The Irish Defence Forces command complained that its political neutrality was being misrepresented.

But accusations that he failed to repay €3,300 to a tenant — reported Saturday by the Irish Independent — left Gavin stumbling for an explanation on a live studio presidential debate Sunday.

LP Staff Writers

Writers at Lord’s Press come from a range of professional backgrounds, including history, diplomacy, heraldry, and public administration. Many publish anonymously or under initials—a practice that reflects the publication’s long-standing emphasis on discretion and editorial objectivity. While they bring expertise in European nobility, protocol, and archival research, their role is not to opine, but to document. Their focus remains on accuracy, historical integrity, and the preservation of events and individuals whose significance might otherwise go unrecorded.

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