PARIS — Early signals suggest Prime Minister François Bayrou’s gamble to hold a confidence vote will bring down his fragile minority government next month, amplifying the crisis that President Emmanuel Macron faces in trying to run France.

Bayrou on Monday effectively dared his opponents to topple him on Sept. 8 over the need to slash France’s massive budget deficit. Most appear willing to call his bluff.

The far-left France Unbowed, which has long sought Bayrou’s head, quickly announced it would move to bring down the government. So too will the center-left Socialists, who have lost patience with the longtime centrist. Even Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, which had appeared to be waiting until budget negotiations began to wield the threat of ousting Bayrou, looks set to stick the knife in.

Bayrou’s camp seemed to be taken aback by the far right’s decision. Someone close to the prime minister, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO they believed that Le Pen “wanted to let us do the dirty work” of balancing France’s books.

Bayrou has survived several no-confidence motions since his appointment late last year thanks to abstentions from either the National Rally or the Socialists. With neither side now offering him a lifeline, Bayrou’s chances of survival have all but evaporated — unless he secures an improbable U-turn from his opponents. 

If the Bayrou government falls, it’s up to Macron to make the next move.

Here are his options, with their potential likelihood:

Appoint another prime minister

Common ground in the National Assembly has proved elusive since snap elections in summer last year delivered a hung parliament comprised of three roughly equal blocs: a left-wing alliance, a marriage of convenience between centrists and conservatives; and the far right.

Should Bayrou fall, he would be the second prime minister to be ousted since the election while trying to push through contentious spending plans. His predecessor, Michel Barnier, fell to a motion of no confidence just three months after being appointed.

Appointing a third centrist or center-leaning prime minister may seem to meet Albert Einstein’s misattributed definition of insanity: doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. But Macron may have no choice if he wants to protect his legacy before French voters head to the polls for the next presidential election in 2027.

One frequently discussed candidate is Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. The 39-year-old is a close Macron ally and a former member of the conservative Les Républicains party — which has been a key coalition partner for both Bayrou and Barnier. He’s also seen an smooth political operator who could talk to the far right.  

Macron could also turn toward some from the center-left to get the Socialists to join a government coalition. Former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve’s name was brought up several times during past government transitions.  

But the Socialists would likely ask for significant policy concessions from Macron and his allies such as increasing taxation, which the French president has vehemently opposed since his 2017 election, or reopening retirement reform talks.

Deep divisions within the center-left force make it uncertain that all of its lawmakers would agree to back a coalition including their former rivals, especially with the presidential vote looking wide open.

Call new snap elections

Ever the political gambler, Macron could decide to roll the dice on another snap election to end the parliamentary gridlock.

The problem, however, is dissolving parliament is exactly how French politics ended up in this mess in the first place. The political landscape hasn’t much changed since last summer, so elections could very well just deliver another hung parliament.

Before Monday, Macron looked unlikely to send voters back to the polls. He has repeatedly, including as recently as last week, reiterated his wish for Bayrou to remain in office and for political leaders to work together.

However, the chorus of critics calling for Macron to dissolve parliament is growing louder. Many think they can win, and it’s not inconceivable that one political force could snag an absolute majority.

Socialist heavyweight Boris Vallaud said his party was preparing for Macron to call a new vote, and Le Pen wrote on X that “only a snap election will allow the French to choose their own destiny, one with the National Rally.”

The longtime far-right icon’s statement was a bit surprising given that she is currently barred from standing in elections after being found guilty of embezzlement, a charge she denies and is appealing.

Resign

The chaos is fueling fresh calls from the political fringes for Macron to stand down —just as it did following the snap elections last summer.

France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon said his party would submit a long-shot parliamentary motion to remove Macron that seems doomed to fail. But veteran political commentators are broaching the subject and politicians are being quizzed on talk shows about whether they want Macron to go.  

Macron has categorically denied he would ever consider an early exit. But France’s future hinges on the government’s ability to deliver a slimmed down 2026 budget to rein deficits and cut spending.

Whatever happens next, it’s clear that the political chaos and dire state of France’s finances could easily morph into an explosive cocktail for the president.

Anthony Lattier contributed to this report